191 Willow Bnd · Onalaska, TX 77360

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Manufactured public records · 151 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1980 Poor condition 6,965 sqft lot $80/sqft · 31% below area Est $94k · 31% under $20/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity to own a lake view lot corner lot with water views in Kickapoo Forest, located directly across from the boat ramp—an angler’s dream with some of the best fishing on Lake Livingston just steps from your front door. The current home on property is not in livable condition. The property also offers easy access to nearby park space and common grounds & fishing pier enhancing both everyday enjoyment and long-term appeal. Only minutes from Onalaska's amenities and with low taxes, and a lightly restricted & low HOA, this place provides flexibility for buyers looking to personalize, improve, or invest in a prime lake-area location with strong upside potential.

Key facts

• Water views
• Fishing pier
• Low taxes

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WATER VIEWS
• BOAT RAMP
• FISHING PIER
• LOW TAXES
• LOW HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($866 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.5% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 70% FRL); Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 391 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53 of equity ($449 loan paydown + $-396 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.01%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,869
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -30.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
649 Ponderosa Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+14%)	0mo	$79,900	$86	52
432 Ponderosa Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	900 (+11%)	9mo	$109,000	$121	45
305 Red Oak	1.10mi	2/1.5	784 (-3%)	15mo	$99,900	$127	44
142 Schooner	0.98mi	2/1.5	770 (-5%)	14mo	$85,000	$110	43
407 S Canyon Dr Dr	1.32mi	2/1.0	728 (-10%)	16mo	$35,000	$48	35
342 Rain Forest Rd	1.44mi	2/2.0	896 (+10%)	13mo	$79,000	$88	33
354 Dove Is	1.09mi	1/1.0 (-1)	689 (-15%)	5mo	$217,500	$316	31
615 Gazelle	1.21mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-11%)	14mo	$94,000	$131	30
149 Curry St	1.35mi	2/2.0	1,010 (+24%)	9mo	$129,000	$128	29
257 Creekside Hbr	0.81mi	2/2.0	912 (+12%)	15mo	$189,999	$208	28
270 Gazelle	1.01mi	2/1.0	672 (-17%)	16mo	$55,000	$82	26
665 Old Groveton Rd S	0.86mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+23%)	16mo	$149,900	$150	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $10,775
• Equity at exit: $16,920

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $34,628
• Equity at exit: $18,838

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $145,000 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 9 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -37.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77360

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$20
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $578

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $246	+0% $228	+5% $209	+10% $191
Rent	-10% $159	-5% $193	+0% $228	+5% $262	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $244	base $228	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Broken Arrow Onalaska, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	93d	1	1.43mi
120 Farm to Market Road 356 Unit 4 Onalaska, TX	2.0	1.0	754	$875	$1.16	93d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail $20/mo · $240/yr

• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-07-29
   days on market $65,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-07-27
   days on market $65,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-07-25
   days on market $65,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-07-23
   days on market $65,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-07-22
   days on market $65,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-07-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-07-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $65,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-07-12
    days on market $65,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-07-11
    days on market $65,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $65,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-07-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-07-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 127 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $65,000 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-07-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 125 DOM
21. 2026-07-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 124 DOM
22. 2026-07-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 123 DOM
23. 2026-07-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 122 DOM
24. 2026-07-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-06-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 120 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $65,000 Active 116 DOM
30. 2026-06-26
    days on market $65,000 Active 115 DOM
31. 2026-06-23
    days on market $65,000 Active 112 DOM
32. 2026-06-21
    days on market $65,000 Active 111 DOM
33. 2026-06-19
    days on market $65,000 Active 109 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $65,000 Active 108 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $65,000 Active 107 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 106 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $65,000 Active 105 DOM
38. 2026-06-14
    days on market $65,000 Active 103 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 102 DOM
40. 2026-06-10
    days on market $65,000 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 99 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 98 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 97 DOM
44. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 94 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 93 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 92 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 91 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 89 DOM
50. 2026-05-05
    price $65,000 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity to own a lake view lot corner lot with water views in Kickapoo Forest, located directly across from the boat ramp—an angler’s dream with some of the best fishing on Lake Livingston just steps from your front door. The current home on property is not in livable condition. The property also offers easy access to nearby park space and common grounds & fishing pier enhancing both everyday enjoyment and long-term appeal. Only minutes from Onalaska's amenities and with low taxes, and a lightly restricted & low HOA, this place provides flexibility for buyers looking to personalize, improve, or invest in a prime lake-area location with strong upside potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$832
• − Management: −$832
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $2,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $40,600–$73,080 screening

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, siding repair, and HVAC system replacement. Painting and landscaping would also significantly improve its appearance and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible
• Major exterior siding — Damaged and peeling
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would improve the home's curb appeal ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both painting — Painting the interior and exterior would improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Onalaska El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 High Onalaska Jr/sr High D+ TX #478/1,632 Nat'l #5,269/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onalaska, TX
• County: Polk · 51,049 people
• Population (ZIP): 6,130
• Household income: $49,004
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 150.9486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $89,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $827 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.