306 S Winfree St · Dayton, TX 77535

$138,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1959 7,501 sqft lot Est $180k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom 1 bath home is being sold AS IS, but includes the vacant lot next door, bringing the property to just under a half an acre. It has frontage on S Winfree/1409, and can be used for commercial use. Property has a garage and shed.

Key facts

• Tenant occupied
• Income producing
• 2 stall garage

Tags

• 2 STALL GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL SHED
• INCOME PRODUCING
• TENANT OCCUPIED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1959
• Construction: Block foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10 and 10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: 2 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1234 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,520
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 W Barrow St	0.18mi	2/1.5	1,154 (+9%)	14mo	$280,000	$243	62
212 S Winfree St	0.05mi	2/1.0	912 (-14%)	18mo	$155,000	$170	56
1007 N Main St	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+8%)	12mo	$65,000	$57	39
809 Coleman St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,159 (+10%)	13mo	$155,000	$134	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,637
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,981
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1234
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,658/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $222	+0% $183	+5% $144	+10% $105
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $124	+0% $183	+5% $243	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $218	base $183	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 E Houston St Dayton, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,775	$1.56	0d	1	0.37mi
704 E Waring St Dayton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$1,200	$1.50	0d	16	0.88mi
1457 W Clayton St Dayton, TX	2.0	2.0	946	$1,099	$1.16	25d	1	1.21mi
2303 N Cleveland St Dayton, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $138,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-04-25
   listed $150,000 Active
7. 2023-02-14
   soldstatus Sold 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bath home is being sold AS IS, but includes the vacant lot next door, bringing the property to just under a half an acre. It has frontage on S Winfree/1409, and can be used for commercial use. Property has a garage and shed.

8. 2023-02-14
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bath home is being sold AS IS, but includes the vacant lot next door, bringing the property to just under a half an acre. It has frontage on S Winfree/1409, and can be used for commercial use. Property has a garage and shed.

9. 2023-01-25
   status Pending 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bath home is being sold AS IS, but includes the vacant lot next door, bringing the property to just under a half an acre. It has frontage on S Winfree/1409, and can be used for commercial use. Property has a garage and shed.

10. 2023-01-19
    listed $130,000 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    This 2 bedroom 1 bath home is being sold AS IS, but includes the vacant lot next door, bringing the property to just under a half an acre. It has frontage on S Winfree/1409, and can be used for commercial use. Property has a garage and shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,658 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,658 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,658
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $39
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $2,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-19 Listed $130,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,658 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.