200 N Jefferson St · Carrollton, MO 64633

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Other · 2 Days on market

Built 1915 5,662 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy and comfortable Bungalow has all of the character and charm that you are looking for in your next home. Offering 3 bedrooms, 1 bath with 1400 square feet of main level living space with a full basement that is partially finished. This lovely home is adorned with hardwood floors and beautiful trim throughout. The screened in porch is a great place to retreat to read a book and sip on come coffee. This home is conveniently located just doors down from the new YMCA campus!

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Detailed trim work
• Newer roof

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• DETAILED TRIM WORK
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• NEWER ROOF
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Bungalow floor plan
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Approximately 101+ years old
• Exterior features: Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Living/dining combo; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($974/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.6% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#80 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carrollton R-VII (town): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #178 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $104,044 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $73,188
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $211,341
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64633

• Home prices YoY: 18.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $398/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2024-12-30
   soldstatus Closed 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   This cozy and comfortable Bungalow has all of the character and charm that you are looking for in your next home. Offering 3 bedrooms, 1 bath with 1400 square feet of main level living space with a full basement that is partially finished. This lovely home is adorned with hardwood floors and beautiful trim throughout. The screened in porch is a great place to retreat to read a book and sip on come coffee. This home is conveniently located just doors down from the new YMCA campus!

4. 2024-12-07
   status Pending 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   This cozy and comfortable Bungalow has all of the character and charm that you are looking for in your next home. Offering 3 bedrooms, 1 bath with 1400 square feet of main level living space with a full basement that is partially finished. This lovely home is adorned with hardwood floors and beautiful trim throughout. The screened in porch is a great place to retreat to read a book and sip on come coffee. This home is conveniently located just doors down from the new YMCA campus!

5. 2024-11-26
   listed $85,000 Active 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   This cozy and comfortable Bungalow has all of the character and charm that you are looking for in your next home. Offering 3 bedrooms, 1 bath with 1400 square feet of main level living space with a full basement that is partially finished. This lovely home is adorned with hardwood floors and beautiful trim throughout. The screened in porch is a great place to retreat to read a book and sip on come coffee. This home is conveniently located just doors down from the new YMCA campus!

6. 2007-06-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $398 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 204.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$398
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$999
• − Management: −$999
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2907380
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,568
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5779
• State rank: #178 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #5324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollton, MO
• City population: 4,504
• Population (ZIP): 4,504

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,269 people
• By 2030: 7,866 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,021 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 6,213 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 4,619 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 3,249 · -60.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.5) · D 17.4% · R 81.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -64.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.5 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+62.7 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.87%
• Current HPI: 271.4099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+47.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $125,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-30 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-07 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Listed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $398 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.