4118 Nebraska Ave · St. Louis, MO 63118

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1910 3,075 sqft lot $43/sqft · 48% below area Est $182k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offered As-is, Where-is. Bring your investors! Property in process of rehab that needs completion. Seller to make no repairs / no inspections. No utilities, bring flashlight! Opportunity is knocking! Take a look!

Key facts

• 3,075 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,830 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.10%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,675
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: -47.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4111 California Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,056 (-6%)	7mo	$174,900	$85	80
4312 Oregon Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,032 (-7%)	8mo	$122,000	$60	66
3824 Michigan Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,340 (+7%)	6mo	$209,000	$89	64
3447 Dunnica	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,232 (+2%)	2mo	$249,900	$112	60
3442 Chippewa St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,068 (-5%)	1mo	$199,500	$96	57
2834 Mount Pleasant St	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,394 (+10%)	0mo	$120,000	$50	56
3204 Dakota St	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,420 (+11%)	4mo	$198,900	$82	53
3614 Iowa Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,064 (-6%)	6mo	$149,900	$73	48
3704 Ohio Ave	0.58mi	3/3.5	1,938 (-11%)	1mo	$249,900	$129	47
3547 Nebraska Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5	2,396 (+10%)	4mo	$280,000	$117	46
3647 Pennsylvania Ave	0.58mi	3/3.5	1,898 (-13%)	6mo	$295,000	$155	40
4631 Oregon Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,874 (-14%)	8mo	$164,900	$88	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $34,321
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $103,164
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63118

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $349/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4312 Oregon Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,000	$0.98	2d	1	0.25mi
4250 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2184	$1,200	$0.55	44d	1	0.25mi
4135 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2104	$1,600	$0.76	44d	1	0.26mi
4145 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,520	$0.92	44d	1	0.27mi
3146 Keokuk St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1528	$1,500	$0.98	24d	1	0.35mi
3131 Keokuk St #3131 Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	15d	1	0.36mi
4450 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	4d	1	0.44mi
3637 Meramec St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1632	$1,925	$1.18	17d	1	0.57mi
4222 S 38th St Unit 4222 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,400	$0.76	20d	1	0.72mi
3540 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,800	$1.02	2d	1	0.73mi
4657 Idaho Ave Unit 4659 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1668	$1,295	$0.78	24d	1	0.75mi
3510 California Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,200	$0.67	44d	1	0.78mi
3429 Ohio Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1938	$2,250	$1.16	16d	1	0.89mi
3410 Virginia Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1442	$1,375	$0.95	16d	1	0.95mi
3411 Cherokee St St. Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	44d	1	1.01mi
3450 Wisconsin Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1219	$2,300	$1.89	2d	15	1.06mi
3526 S Spring Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2244	$2,877	$1.28	44d	1	1.09mi
3458 Giles Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2204	$2,400	$1.09	8d	1	1.11mi
3807 Potomac St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2588	$1,100	$0.43	44d	1	1.21mi
3807 Potomac St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2588	$1,300	$0.50	8d	1	1.21mi
2643 Wyoming St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2592	$2,600	$1.00	44d	1	1.21mi
3628 Wyoming St Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	44d	1	1.34mi
2634 Arsenal St St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	24d	1	1.34mi
2636 Arsenal St St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	24d	1	1.35mi
3908 McDonald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,500	$1.30	4d	1	1.39mi
3228 Arsenal St Unit 1f St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2702	$1,395	$0.52	24d	1	1.44mi
755 Dover Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2750	$1,000	$0.36	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $94,500 Pending 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,500 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,500 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,500 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $94,500 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $94,500 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $94,500 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $94,500 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $94,500 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-04-06
    listed $94,500 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Offered As-is, Where-is. Bring your investors! Property in process of rehab that needs completion. Seller to make no repairs / no inspections. No utilities, bring flashlight! Opportunity is knocking! Take a look!

11. 2025-12-02
    status Active
12. 2025-11-20
    status Pending
13. 2025-10-17
    price $119,900
14. 2025-08-27
    price $144,500
15. 2025-07-23
    listed $169,500 Active
16. 2025-04-02
    listed $224,900 Active
17. 2024-01-08
    soldstatus $171,500
18. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $159,000
19. 2021-08-18
    soldstatus $69,000
20. 2021-08-16
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2021-08-10
    status Pending
22. 2021-07-26
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2021-07-14
    listed $69,000 Active
24. 2014-04-17
    soldstatus
25. 2014-03-03
    listed $32,900
26. 2000-08-11
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $349 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$567/yr (+$47/mo · 162.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$349
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $7,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,835
• After-tax cash flow: $6,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 25,913
• Household income: $57,762
• Rent vs Own: 56.1% rent · 43.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 41% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.51%
• Current HPI: 171.5963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.89%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+329.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $94,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $119,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $144,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Listed $169,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Listed $224,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $171,500 Public Records
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-26 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-14 Listed $69,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-17 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-03 Listed $32,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $349 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.