6827 Spring Branch Dr · Denton, TX 76249

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1998 1.00 ac lot $112/sqft · 25% below area Est $199k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Double-wide manufactured home on 1 acre of land in Krum, TX with great potential. Property is in need of updates and is being sold as-is. Existing flooring has been removed, offering a blank canvas for the new owner to install their own finishes and design. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste. Spacious lot with room to expand or improve. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanche Dodd El (math 45% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 312 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $150k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.78%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,972
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -12.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6827 Spring Branch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$112	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,454
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $88,342
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76249

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,201

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	0.40mi
5568 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	5d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $150,000 Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Contingent 409-char remark
3. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 409-char remark
4. 2026-04-22
   price $175,000 409-char remark
5. 2026-04-09
   price $199,000 409-char remark
6. 2026-03-30
   listed $210,000 Active 409-char remark
7. 2002-01-22
   soldstatus $49,000
8. 1998-07-13
   soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,546/yr (+$129/mo · 128.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $7,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $7,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,637
• Household income: $120,169
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 134.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.45%
• Current HPI: 276.067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-05 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2002-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,199 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.