548 Shew Hollow Rd · Jefferson, NY 12167

$199,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1972 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this delightful 1.5-acre retreat featuring scenic mountain views and a private pond. Surrounded by mature gardens, the home boasts a large screened-in porch for seamless, bug-free outdoor living. The main floor offers a comfortable kitchen, a living room centered around a cozy fireplace, two bedrooms, and a full bath. Additional living space awaits in the partially finished basement, which includes a third bedroom, a flexible bonus room with a door leading outside to the yard, gardens and pond. The basement includes a freshly updated bathroom with a brand-new stall shower. Complete with an attached two-car garage offering abundant storage.

Key facts

• Mature gardens
• Screened in porch
• Loads of storage

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• MATURE GARDENS
• PARTIALLY RENOVATED BASEMENT
• BRAND NEW STALL SHOWER
• LOADS OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Poured foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full, partially finished basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer (in basement); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #723 of 755 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $199k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.81%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $112,708
• Equity at exit: $115,282

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $283,902
• Equity at exit: $201,068

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12167

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,936/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $1,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,630

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $1,069	+0% $1,013	+5% $956	+10% $900
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $898	+0% $1,013	+5% $1,128	+10% $1,243
Rate	-1.0pp $1,113	-0.5pp $1,063	base $1,013	+0.5pp $961	+1.0pp $909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   remarks 658-char remark
10. 2026-06-12
    listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,650 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 36.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,936
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,795
• − Management: −$2,795
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $9,485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,276
• After-tax cash flow: $9,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,778
• Composite: 29.11/100
• National rank: #11892
• State rank: #723 of 755 in NY

Livability — Jefferson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,257

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Current HPI: 368.4492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $199,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,936 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.