4209 Fred L Shuttlesworth Dr · Birmingham, AL 35207

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1955 1,306 sqft lot $59/sqft · at area comps Est $53k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! Home is being sold AS-IS

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 164 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.30%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,467
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: 2.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3459 35th Ave N	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-8%)	1mo	$60,000	$69	69
3373 33rd Pl N	0.54mi	3/1.0	912 (-3%)	3mo	$55,000	$60	68
3533 42nd Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+8%)	20mo	$38,000	$38	67
3708 42nd Ave N	0.33mi	3/1.0	876 (-6%)	13mo	$54,900	$63	63
3148 34th Ter N	0.54mi	3/1.0	912 (-3%)	11mo	$100,000	$110	62
3402 33rd Ct N	0.63mi	3/1.0	876 (-6%)	7mo	$63,000	$72	54
3716 44th Ave N	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+8%)	22mo	$50,000	$50	52
3435 33rd Pl N	0.44mi	3/1.0	816 (-13%)	9mo	$75,000	$92	51
4316 Gadsden St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,048 (+12%)	5mo	$50,000	$48	40
3426 31st Pl N	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+8%)	23mo	$8,500	$8	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $58,817
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.77×
• Total profit: $150,533
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35207

• Home prices YoY: 18.7%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $686/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $466

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3708 42nd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	43d	1	0.32mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	23d	1	0.51mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	11d	1	0.51mi
3376 34th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	2d	1	0.51mi
3373 33rd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	3d	1	0.52mi
4316 Gadsden St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1048	$1,100	$1.05	3d	1	0.65mi
4244 Jackson St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	858	$1,100	$1.28	43d	1	0.85mi
1316 Spring St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,195	$1.30	3d	1	0.87mi
3016 33rd Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	43d	1	0.92mi
3944 40th St N Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	625	$675	$1.08	43d	1	1.00mi
3944 40th St N Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	625	$699	$1.12	1d	1	1.00mi
4549 40th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	43d	1	1.06mi
821 Overton Ave Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	650	$625	$0.96	43d	1	1.08mi
4101 50th Ave N Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	43d	1	1.20mi
2129 30th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,000	$0.96	23d	1	1.27mi
4220 40th Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	948	$1,200	$1.27	43d	1	1.32mi
4208 50th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.34mi
4236 39th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	23d	1	1.38mi
1224 Maple St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	812	$690	$0.85	19d	1	1.41mi
4317 41st Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,000	$1.16	43d	1	1.42mi
1120 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	43d	1	1.47mi
1116 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-01-04
    listed $55,000 Active 54-char remark

    Show marketing remark (54 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! Home is being sold AS-IS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$686
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$998
• − Management: −$998
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $4,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 6,824

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.95%
• Current HPI: 228.5664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-04 Listed $55,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $686 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.