11 Pine Hill Dr · Morgantown, MS 39120

$170,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2012 0.26 ac lot $247/sqft · 152% above area Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! #9 AND #11 PINE HILL DRIVE CONSIST OF 2 HOMES AND A BUILDING (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY USED AS A CAR DEALERSHIP AND MOST RECENTLY AS A RESTAURANT). BOTH HOMES INCLUDES 3 BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS. THE YELLOW BUILDING IN THE CENTER OF BOTH HOMES CAN ALSO BE UTILIZED AS A BUSINESS OR AS A HOME. 3 STRUCTURES SITUATED ON 2 PARCELS, WILL BE SOLD TOGETHER ''AS IS WHERE IS''. BUYER IS WELCOME TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-666/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#106 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joseph L Frazier Elementary (math 5% / reading 13%); Morgantown Middle (math 7% / reading 12%); Natchez High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #183 of 197 statewide, top 93%, 665 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,699 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,933
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: 1.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-31,164
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-32,026
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $560/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $160,201

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-7	+0% $-55	+5% $-104	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-103	+0% $-55	+5% $-8	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-12	base $-55	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    status Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! #9 AND #11 PINE HILL DRIVE CONSIST OF 2 HOMES AND A BUILDING (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY USED AS A CAR DEALERSHIP AND MOST RECENTLY AS A RESTAURANT). BOTH HOMES INCLUDES 3 BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS. THE YELLOW BUILDING IN THE CENTER OF BOTH HOMES CAN ALSO BE UTILIZED AS A BUSINESS OR AS A HOME. 3 STRUCTURES SITUATED ON 2 PARCELS, WILL BE SOLD TOGETHER ''AS IS WHERE IS''. BUYER IS WELCOME TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED.

18. 2026-03-10
    status Pending 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! #9 AND #11 PINE HILL DRIVE CONSIST OF 2 HOMES AND A BUILDING (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY USED AS A CAR DEALERSHIP AND MOST RECENTLY AS A RESTAURANT). BOTH HOMES INCLUDES 3 BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS. THE YELLOW BUILDING IN THE CENTER OF BOTH HOMES CAN ALSO BE UTILIZED AS A BUSINESS OR AS A HOME. 3 STRUCTURES SITUATED ON 2 PARCELS, WILL BE SOLD TOGETHER ''AS IS WHERE IS''. BUYER IS WELCOME TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED.

19. 2026-03-04
    listed $170,000 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! #9 AND #11 PINE HILL DRIVE CONSIST OF 2 HOMES AND A BUILDING (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY USED AS A CAR DEALERSHIP AND MOST RECENTLY AS A RESTAURANT). BOTH HOMES INCLUDES 3 BEDROOMS AND 1 1/2 BATHS. THE YELLOW BUILDING IN THE CENTER OF BOTH HOMES CAN ALSO BE UTILIZED AS A BUSINESS OR AS A HOME. 3 STRUCTURES SITUATED ON 2 PARCELS, WILL BE SOLD TOGETHER ''AS IS WHERE IS''. BUYER IS WELCOME TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $560 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,343 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$783/yr (+$65/mo · 139.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$560
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Morgantown

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #12538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-10 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-04 Listed $170,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $560 · +56.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.