410 Cottage St NW · Shellsburg, IA 52332

$136,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1890 0.48 ac lot $159/sqft · 8% below area Est $148k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1890

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 165 x 126

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#344 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vinton-Shellsburg Community School District (rural): math 79% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #43 of 289 in IA (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Shellsburg Elementary School (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #71 of 616 statewide, top 15%, 234 students, 42% FRL); Vinton-Shellsburg Middle School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #22 of 246 statewide, top 12%, 318 students, 42% FRL); Vinton-Shellsburg High School (math 72% / reading 80%, grade A-, #75 of 336 statewide, top 23%, 425 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($944 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $136k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,899 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,151
• List price: $136,500
• Delta: -7.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Johnson St St SW	0.45mi	2/1.0	912 (+6%)	12mo	$146,000	$160	59
410 SE Main St	0.61mi	1/1.0 (-1)	870 (+1%)	21mo	$60,000	$69	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $30,346
• Equity at exit: $87,464

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $97,088
• Equity at exit: $160,058

Cash invested: $38,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52332

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,150/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,099

Max offer price $107,135

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-89	-5% $-128	+0% $-166	+5% $-205	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-201	+0% $-166	+5% $-131	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-132	base $-166	+0.5pp $-202	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,125
• Closing costs: $4,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $136,500 Active
2. 2026-05-08
   status Active
3. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-06
   listed $139,000 Active
5. 2013-03-05
   soldstatus $75,500
6. 2000-02-01
   soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$497/yr (+$41/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,646
• − Property taxes: −$1,150
• − Insurance: −$682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$853
• − Management: −$853
• − Depreciation: −$3,971
• Taxable loss: −$4,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $-917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vinton-Shellsburg Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1929310
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,023
• Composite: 66.21/100
• National rank: #430
• State rank: #43 of 289 in IA

Livability — Shellsburg

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #7017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shellsburg, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,638

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,078 people
• By 2030: 24,606 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 23,425 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 21,891 · -12.7%
• By 2075: 19,482 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 17,139 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.2) · D 32.8% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.7pp toward R · 2008: 4.5pp · 2024: -33.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.2 2020: R+27.5 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+0.6 2008: D+4.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.19%
• Current HPI: 202.2662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+175.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — CRAAR, CDRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $136,500 CRAAR, CDRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — CRAAR, CDRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — CRAAR, CDRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $139,000 CRAAR, CDRMLS
• 2013-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 2000-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,150 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.