34 Medler Ct NE · Ludowici, GA 31316

$271,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,627 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Fairfax Plan at Paxton Hill! Steps away from local schools & recreation, as well as minutes to Hinesville & Ft. Stewart. This home offers both comfort & accessibility! Step inside to an open-concept living area filled with natural light and backyard views. The kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area and family room. Enjoy modern finishes like granite countertops, ample cabinetry, a spacious pantry, and easy access to the garage and half bath. Head outdoors to your fenced backyard with sod and irrigation, perfect for relaxing evenings or weekend gatherings on the patio. Upstairs, you'll find two secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath with granite vanity, a

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Dual vanity
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• DUAL VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Paxton Hill; Directions: From McClelland Rd NE turn in Paxton Hill phase 3A via Calhoun Way NE; take left onto Medler Ct NE and follow to lot 343.
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $30 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Windows listed as green/energy efficient
• Home design: Single-family residence; 2 stories; Under construction; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood privacy fencing (fenced yard); Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Accessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Hall laundry access

🏗️ New construction. The $271,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,860.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,365 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Lanier Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-9%)	5mo	$279,400	$190	64
612 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-0%)	2mo	$281,325	$174	60
249 Lanier Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-9%)	5mo	$274,900	$186	60
263 Lanier Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-13%)	3mo	$274,400	$194	59
707 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-6%)	1mo	$274,830	$180	57
385 Carson St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,778 (+9%)	1mo	$300,000	$169	57
53 Freshwater Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-13%)	3mo	$274,400	$194	56
725 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (-4%)	1mo	$278,925	$178	56
555 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (-4%)	3mo	$277,625	$177	54
241 NE Freshwater Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-13%)	4mo	$274,900	$194	51
591 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,810 (+11%)	3mo	$281,850	$156	44
627 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,810 (+11%)	2mo	$282,750	$156	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-11,123
• Equity at exit: $102,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $23,969
• Equity at exit: $137,975

Cash invested: $82,001 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,393/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,600

Max offer price $249,854

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-196	+0% $-297	+5% $-398	+10% $-500
Rent	-10% $-473	-5% $-385	+0% $-297	+5% $-209	+10% $-122
Rate	-1.0pp $-150	-0.5pp $-223	base $-297	+0.5pp $-373	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,215
• Closing costs: $8,786
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Clark St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	45d	1	0.88mi
59 Forest St NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	45d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $271,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $271,500 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $271,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $271,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $271,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $271,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $271,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,405
• − Property taxes: −$4,393
• − Insurance: −$1,464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,520
• Taxable loss: −$8,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,095
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home at Paxton Hill is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal, interior aesthetics, and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can attract more buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — High-quality flooring can significantly enhance the home's value and appeal to buyers.
• Rental Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained landscape and irrigation system can attract tenants and increase rental income.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the system operates efficiently and reduces energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — High-quality flooring can significantly enhance the home's value and appeal to buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained landscape and irrigation system can attract tenants and increase rental income. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the system operates efficiently and reduces energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ludowici, GA
• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $271,500 Hive MLS