9855 Deer Ridge Ln · Hearne, TX 77808

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 2014 Good condition 1.00 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Remodeled manufactured home with one acre of land. New HVAC condenser, roof, flooring throughout and new covered decks. The new large decks allow you to enjoy the outdoors this summer. It is ready to move in. Utilities are connected including an onsite septic system installed in 2025. This house can be owner financed. Call for a tour and more information.

Key facts

• New covered decks
• New hvac condenser
• Onsite septic system

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• ONE ACRE OF LAND
• NEW HVAC CONDENSER
• NEW COVERED DECKS
• ONSITE SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/composition roof
• Exterior features: No fencing; 1 acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.9% in Hearne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#611 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hearne ISD (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #816 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 23 units permitted in Robertson County in 2023 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,722
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $26,407
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77808

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $431	+0% $371	+5% $310	+10% $250
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $292	+0% $371	+5% $450	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $415	base $371	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10954 Jackrabbit Ln Bryan, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	44d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    remarks 357-char remark
15. 2026-05-30
    listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $4,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled manufactured home with new decks and flooring is in good condition and ready to move in. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing and increase its value
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing and increase its value ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hearne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822830
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,858
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9655
• State rank: #816 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hearne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #611
• US rank: #11586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,797
• Household income: $113,343
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 110.0

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,926 people
• By 2030: 17,039 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 17,217 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 17,301 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 17,849 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 17,642 · +4.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.49%
• Current HPI: 216.65
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $175,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $185,000 BCSRMLS