18 Parsley Ave · Middleburg, FL 32068

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 1.15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTIPLE OFFERS; Highest and best will be accepted by 5pm 1/27/18. 3/2 well maintained fully fenced home. Horse lovers will appreciate the efficiently planned horse-lovers paradise with 2 stall barn, tackroom, feedroom, round pen, wash rack, etc. Inside the home is light, bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside. This is a well-loved and cared for home with plenty of closet space and windows to bring in the natural light. There is also a detached work shed with AC unit. According to the sellers, one of their favorite things about this home is their neighbors. Convenient to everything, this is a must see. Close to riding and hiking trails, shopping, and medical care. Seller rides her horse to Jennings from the property.

Key facts

• 1.15 acre lot
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $956 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J.L. Wilkinson Elementary School (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C, #963 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 717 students, 100% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.20%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,316
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 Parsley Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-10%)	2mo	$236,000	$188	69
18 Foxtail Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,404 (0%)	11mo	$202,900	$145	69
157 Plankton Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	2mo	$269,900	$187	61
43 Plankton Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	9mo	$255,000	$189	61
497 Kay Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+4%)	10mo	$260,000	$179	57
153 Plankton Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	6mo	$235,000	$150	42
2106 Candlewood Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+7%)	15mo	$259,900	$173	41
51 Currant Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+15%)	14mo	$270,000	$167	40
171 Mandrake St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-15%)	22mo	$249,900	$209	40
84 N Mimosa Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	24mo	$150,000	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $48,704
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $124,094
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $956

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,001	-5% $978	+0% $956	+5% $933	+10% $910
Rent	-10% $796	-5% $876	+0% $956	+5% $1,036	+10% $1,116
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $976	base $956	+0.5pp $935	+1.0pp $914

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4371 Johns Cemetery Rd Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-12-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   listed $80,000 Active
3. 2018-03-29
   soldstatus $109,000
4. 2018-03-26
   historical 746-char remark

   Show marketing remark (746 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS; Highest and best will be accepted by 5pm 1/27/18. 3/2 well maintained fully fenced home. Horse lovers will appreciate the efficiently planned horse-lovers paradise with 2 stall barn, tackroom, feedroom, round pen, wash rack, etc. Inside the home is light, bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside. This is a well-loved and cared for home with plenty of closet space and windows to bring in the natural light. There is also a detached work shed with AC unit. According to the sellers, one of their favorite things about this home is their neighbors. Convenient to everything, this is a must see. Close to riding and hiking trails, shopping, and medical care. Seller rides her horse to Jennings from the property.

5. 2018-03-23
   soldstatus $109,000 Sold 746-char remark

   Show marketing remark (746 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS; Highest and best will be accepted by 5pm 1/27/18. 3/2 well maintained fully fenced home. Horse lovers will appreciate the efficiently planned horse-lovers paradise with 2 stall barn, tackroom, feedroom, round pen, wash rack, etc. Inside the home is light, bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside. This is a well-loved and cared for home with plenty of closet space and windows to bring in the natural light. There is also a detached work shed with AC unit. According to the sellers, one of their favorite things about this home is their neighbors. Convenient to everything, this is a must see. Close to riding and hiking trails, shopping, and medical care. Seller rides her horse to Jennings from the property.

6. 2018-01-30
   status Pending 746-char remark

   Show marketing remark (746 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS; Highest and best will be accepted by 5pm 1/27/18. 3/2 well maintained fully fenced home. Horse lovers will appreciate the efficiently planned horse-lovers paradise with 2 stall barn, tackroom, feedroom, round pen, wash rack, etc. Inside the home is light, bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside. This is a well-loved and cared for home with plenty of closet space and windows to bring in the natural light. There is also a detached work shed with AC unit. According to the sellers, one of their favorite things about this home is their neighbors. Convenient to everything, this is a must see. Close to riding and hiking trails, shopping, and medical care. Seller rides her horse to Jennings from the property.

7. 2018-01-22
   listed $105,000 Active 746-char remark

   Show marketing remark (746 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS; Highest and best will be accepted by 5pm 1/27/18. 3/2 well maintained fully fenced home. Horse lovers will appreciate the efficiently planned horse-lovers paradise with 2 stall barn, tackroom, feedroom, round pen, wash rack, etc. Inside the home is light, bright and welcoming from the moment you step inside. This is a well-loved and cared for home with plenty of closet space and windows to bring in the natural light. There is also a detached work shed with AC unit. According to the sellers, one of their favorite things about this home is their neighbors. Convenient to everything, this is a must see. Close to riding and hiking trails, shopping, and medical care. Seller rides her horse to Jennings from the property.

8. 2014-08-25
   soldstatus $68,000
9. 2014-08-22
   soldstatus $68,000
10. 2014-05-23
    listed $69,900
11. 2005-09-19
    soldstatus $83,000
12. 2005-09-16
    soldstatus $83,000
13. 2005-04-12
    listed $84,605
14. 2003-03-28
    soldstatus $72,500
15. 2003-01-20
    historical
16. 2002-06-10
    listed $69,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $10,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,618
• After-tax cash flow: $8,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+14.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $80,000 realMLS
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-26 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2018-03-23 Sold (MLS) $109,000 realMLS
• 2018-01-30 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-01-22 Listed $105,000 realMLS
• 2014-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-22 Sold (MLS) $68,000 realMLS
• 2014-05-23 Listed $69,900 realMLS
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-16 Sold (MLS) $83,000 realMLS
• 2005-04-12 Listed $84,605 realMLS
• 2003-03-28 Sold (MLS) $72,500 realMLS
• 2003-01-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2002-06-10 Listed $69,995 realMLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,295 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.