1967 Hopson Dr · Athens, TX 75752

$166,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1986 0.98 ac lot Est $248k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Secluded, peaceful living half a mile from Lake Athens. Charming 3BR, 2BA home nestled on 1 acre just outside of Athens city limits. Quiet peaceful area. Home is great for retirement or starter home. Split bedroom arrangement, the primary bedroom and 1 other both have private entrance from the back of the home. 25X30 Workshop with electric, water and workbench. Covered back patio

Key facts

• Private entrance
• Covered back patio
• Secluded living

Tags

• SECLUDED LIVING
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• WORKSHOP WITH ELECTRIC
• COVERED BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Co-op water; Outside city limits water service
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Built in 1986; Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Chain link fence; Acreage lot (~0.98 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: In-law suite floorplan; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; One living area; One dining area; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.4% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#241 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brownsboro El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 429 students, 66% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,510 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.70%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,940
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7839 Two Mile Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,369 (-11%)	15mo	$220,000	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,952
• Equity at exit: $24,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,352
• Equity at exit: $14,353

Cash invested: $46,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75752

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$871
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,135/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $166,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $345	+0% $298	+5% $251	+10% $204
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $232	+0% $298	+5% $365	+10% $431
Rate	-1.0pp $382	-0.5pp $340	base $298	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,500
• Closing costs: $4,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $166,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $166,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $166,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $166,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $166,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $166,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $166,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $166,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $166,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $166,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $166,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $166,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $166,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $166,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $166,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $166,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $166,000 Active
18. 2001-03-07
    soldstatus
19. 1998-12-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,038 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,903/yr (+$159/mo · 167.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,299
• − Property taxes: −$1,135
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$4,829
• Taxable income: $909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $3,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Athens

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #5796

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,644
• Population (ZIP): 7,391

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.92%
• Current HPI: 200.117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $166,000 NTREIS
• 2001-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,135 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.