2377 Hurricane Crk · Pikeville, KY 41539

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home designed for both comfort and style. The large living room creates the perfect gathering space, while the beautiful kitchen makes cooking a joy. A versatile bonus room adds extra flexibility for your needs. Surrounded by a peaceful, private setting, this home is a wonderful retreat you'll look forward to coming home to every day!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 10 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pike County Central High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 601 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $125k implies a 1822% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,056 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.23%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $28,052
• Equity at exit: $57,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $81,772
• Equity at exit: $90,265

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41539

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $529/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $217	+0% $181	+5% $146	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $135	+0% $181	+5% $228	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $213	base $181	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   listed $124,900 Active
3. 2026-02-28
   listed $124,900 Active
4. 2025-09-05
   listed $129,000 Active
5. 2024-08-27
   price $139,900
6. 2024-05-28
   listed $149,900 Active
7. 2002-04-01
   soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $529 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$545/yr (+$45/mo · 102.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$529
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28
• After-tax cash flow: $2,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pikeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,486

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Current HPI: 135.053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1821.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-02-28 Listed $124,900 EKAR
• 2026-02-28 Listed $124,900 EKAR
• 2025-09-05 Listed $129,000 EKAR
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $139,900 EKAR
• 2024-05-28 Listed $149,900 EKAR
• 2002-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $529 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.