15701 US Highway 59 Business #9 · Splendora, TX 77372

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 816 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2024 Good condition $69/sqft · 50% below area Est $199k · 50% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks MLS

Mid size economical to own family home with sprawling living room, beautiful open kitchen with island, separate utility room, large bedrooms, walk-in closets and full baths. Gorgeous Vinyl exterior siding with dormer and wood accent around the front door.

Key facts

• Large bedrooms
• Walk-in closets
• Built 2024

Tags

• SPRAWLING LIVING ROOM
• BEAUTIFUL OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE BEDROOMS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• GORGEOUS VINYL EXTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.1% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 655 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 816 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 816 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.10%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,836
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -49.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25774 John Wayne Rd	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-4%)	1mo	$241,990	$176	57
25766 John Wayne Rd	1.46mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-4%)	2mo	$234,900	$170	56
25688 John Wayne Rd	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+5%)	1mo	$264,900	$175	56
25610 Dogwood Ln	1.19mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+8%)	2mo	$260,000	$167	50
25388 White Oak Ln	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-12%)	2mo	$150,000	$118	44
25641 John Wayne Rd	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+13%)	0mo	$283,900	$174	43
25696 John Wayne Rd	1.36mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+13%)	1mo	$279,900	$172	42
25709 John Wayne Rd	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+13%)	2mo	$276,900	$170	42
25712 John Wayne Rd	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+13%)	2mo	$276,900	$170	42
16124 Brettwood Ln	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,109 (-23%)	2mo	$179,990	$162	39
25633 John Wayne Rd	1.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+25%)	1mo	$289,900	$162	34
25658 John Wayne Rd	1.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (+20%)	2mo	$291,990	$169	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,740
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $37,607
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active
• Median asking: $104,900 ($75/sqft)
• Median days on market: 739 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +84.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $410	+0% $375	+5% $341	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $322	+0% $375	+5% $429	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $426	-0.5pp $401	base $375	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,175	$1.08	38d	1	0.96mi
15645 All Star Dr Splendora, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,801	$1.02	42d	1	1.10mi
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,716	$1.09	23d	1	1.10mi
24898 Lakewood Dr Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	12d	1	1.35mi
24898 Lakewood Dr Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	3d	1	1.35mi
25721 John Wayne Rd Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,800	$1.28	36d	1	1.36mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	53d	1	1.42mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Unit A Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,295	$1.28	43d	1	1.42mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	71d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 816 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $99,900 Active 814 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $99,900 Active 813 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 812 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 811 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 808 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,900 Active 807 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,900 Active 806 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $99,900 Active 805 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 803 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $99,900 Active 801 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $99,900 Active 800 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $99,900 Active 799 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $99,900 Active 798 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $99,900 Active 797 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 795 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 794 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,900 Active 793 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $99,900 Active 792 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $99,900 Active 791 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 790 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 789 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $99,900 Active 788 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $99,900 Active 787 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 786 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 784 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,900 Active 783 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,900 Active 782 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 781 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 780 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 779 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 778 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 777 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $99,900 Active 776 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $99,900 Active 775 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $99,900 Active 774 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 773 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $99,900 Active 771 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $99,900 Active 769 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $99,900 Active 768 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 765 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $99,900 Active 764 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $99,900 Active 763 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $99,900 Active 762 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 760 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 759 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 756 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 755 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 754 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 751 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$744
• After-tax cash flow: $3,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and good curb appeal. It has the potential for minor improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Splendora, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $99,900 Zillow
• 2024-05-14 Listed $118,900 Zillow