1643 County Road 3545 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Built 1996 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This unrestricted land offers a peaceful rural lifestyle with a septic, well, and electric already in place. With easy access to the Houston area, IAH Airport, The Woodlands, and Lake Livingston, it strikes the ideal balance between tranquility and convenience. The open floor plan maximizes space and offers flexibility for personalization. The spacious lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or additional structures. Included are two buildings: the home and a storage area. Situated close to local conveniences like grocery stores, dining, and services, this property is perfect for those seeking low-maintenance living with room to grow. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a quiet retreat, this home offers great potential. Contact us today to schedule a showing and explore the possibilities!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Outdoor recreation
• Spacious lot

Tags

• PEACEFUL RURAL LIFESTYLE
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• CLOSE TO LOCAL CONVENIENCES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,592
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $23,134
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $964

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-03-04
    listed $120,000 Active 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    This unrestricted land offers a peaceful rural lifestyle with a septic, well, and electric already in place. With easy access to the Houston area, IAH Airport, The Woodlands, and Lake Livingston, it strikes the ideal balance between tranquility and convenience. The open floor plan maximizes space and offers flexibility for personalization. The spacious lot provides ample room for outdoor activities, gardening, or additional structures. Included are two buildings: the home and a storage area. Situated close to local conveniences like grocery stores, dining, and services, this property is perfect for those seeking low-maintenance living with room to grow. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a quiet retreat, this home offers great potential. Contact us today to schedule a showing and explore the possibilities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,211/yr (+$101/mo · 122.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$249
• After-tax cash flow: $2,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $120,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.