3412 Lantern Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$280,000

7 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,412 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 318 Days on market

Built 1973 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 317 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/5.0-bath multifamily listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 621 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,248/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 2121% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.65%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-22,498
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,839
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,774/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,700

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $513	+0% $433	+5% $354	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $305	+0% $433	+5% $562	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $574	-0.5pp $505	base $433	+0.5pp $361	+1.0pp $287

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,248
Total (2 units)			$3,248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,000 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $280,000 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $280,000 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $280,000 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $280,000 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-05-02
   status Active 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

7. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

8. 2026-04-02
   status Active 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

9. 2026-03-08
   status Pending 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

10. 2026-02-28
    status Pending 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

11. 2026-02-12
    status Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

12. 2026-02-05
    status Pending 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

13. 2025-12-23
    price $280,000 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

14. 2025-09-08
    price $320,000 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

15. 2025-06-26
    listed $340,000 Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Triplex is leased out. 3412: 3 bed, 2 bath $1150 3414: 2/1 $1529 3416: 2/1 $950

16. 2025-04-01
    historical $950
17. 2024-11-19
    listed $950
18. 2024-09-01
    historical $950
19. 2024-07-31
    listed $950
20. 2022-09-06
    soldstatus
21. 2016-01-12
    soldstatus
22. 2016-01-11
    soldstatus Sold 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

23. 2016-01-07
    status Pending 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

24. 2015-12-27
    status Option Pending 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

25. 2015-12-19
    price $127,500 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

26. 2015-09-22
    price $135,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

27. 2015-06-25
    price $139,900 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

28. 2015-02-07
    status Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

29. 2015-01-15
    status Option Pending 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

30. 2014-12-09
    status Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

31. 2014-12-03
    status Option Pending 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

32. 2014-07-08
    listed $145,000 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Please do not disturb the tenants. Each unit has at least 1 parking space. This tri-plex has 2 - 2 bedroom units and 1 - 3 bedroom unit. Central heat and water heaters are electric. Each unit pays on electric and gas bill. Owner pays water. 3412 - a/c & heat replaced - June 2015. 3416 - a/c & heat replaced August 2015.

33. 2013-02-19
    historical
34. 2013-02-19
    price $145,000
35. 2011-03-09
    listed $150,000 Active
36. 2004-12-02
    soldstatus
37. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,774 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,774 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$5,774
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,118
• − Management: −$3,118
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $4,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Rental Removed $950 HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Listed for Rent $950 HARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Rental Removed $950 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $950 HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-01-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-12-19 Price Changed $127,500 HARMLS
• 2015-09-22 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2015-06-25 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2015-02-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-01-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-12-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-07-08 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2013-02-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-02-19 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2011-03-09 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,774 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.