24921 Muirlands #26 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Built 1974 9.80 ac lot Est $172k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Senior park space rent is $1,341/Mo. GOLF COURSE VIEW. . Backs to golf course with patio, deck and fenced in yard, great for entertaining or just chill out and watch the golfers. New roof, EQ. Bracing, Laminate flooring, great room, the kitchen has a range, microwave hood, farmhouse sink and composite countertops. 2 bedroom 2 bath, 1344 S. F. The yard has a raised bed planter an orange & apricot tree and a Tuff Shed.

Key facts

• Laminated flooring
• Large closet
• Large living room

Tags

• FARMHOUSE SINK
• LAMINATED FLOORING
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE CLOSET
• SITTING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: El Toro Estates; Manager approval required for sale
• Financial info: Land lease
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities include card room, gym/exercise room, pool, clubhouse, banquet facilities, and spa; Street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Entry at main level; Mobile home (24' x 60') — mobile home remains; Has a view
• Construction: Vinyl and chain link fencing
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Community pool; Close to clubhouse; One shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; Bathtub; Double sinks in master bath
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Double pane windows; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $891 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.1% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $249k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24921 Muirlands Blvd #28	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	87
24921 Muirlands Blvd #11	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	14mo	$149,900	$112	85
24921 Muirlands Blvd #209	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$152,500	$106	84
24921 Muirlands Blvd #265	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$185,000	$128	83
24921 Muirlands #13	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$175,000	$122	82
24921 Muirlands Blvd Spc 114	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$207,000	$144	80
24921 Muirlands Blvd #23	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	2mo	$199,000	$134	77
24921 Muirlands Blvd #113	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$205,000	$142	77
24921 Muirlands Blvd #303	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$240,000	$167	75
24921 Muirlands Blvd #270	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$159,000	$110	74
24921 Muirlands Blvd #140	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,444 (+7%)	13mo	$155,000	$107	73
24701 Raymond Way #39	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$202,500	$141	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $14,812
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $79,563
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $891

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23250 Orange Ave Lake Forest, CA	2.0	2.0	947	$2,995	$3.16	24d	1	0.19mi
25092 Farthing St Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,303	$3.75	3d	5	0.54mi
6 Quinn Way Mission Viejo, CA	3.0	3.5	1716	$4,100	$2.39	20d	1	0.63mi
62 Aliso Ridge Loop Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	2.5	1560	$3,795	$2.43	24d	1	0.64mi
23151 Los Alisos Blvd Mission Viejo, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$2,654	$2.43	2d	1	0.78mi
24621 Overlake Dr Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1677	$4,350	$2.59	24d	1	0.90mi
24391 Avenida de la Carlota Laguna Hills, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,965	$4.14	1d	18	1.04mi
26075 Las Flores Unit b Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	1.5	989	$3,200	$3.24	15d	1	1.05mi
22835 Islamare Ln Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.5	1860	$6,600	$3.55	12d	1	1.06mi
24246 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,750	$3.04	24d	1	1.09mi
24241 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,850	$3.15	43d	1	1.09mi
26037 Via Pera Unit K4 Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	1.0	932	$3,387	$3.63	43d	1	1.10mi
22892 Plainview Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,400	$2.94	43d	1	1.15mi
22602 Cottonwood Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,250	$3.27	43d	1	1.16mi
26191 Sanz Unit D Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	2.5	1000	$3,250	$3.25	20d	1	1.18mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1007	$3,356	$3.33	43d	1	1.20mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$3,250	$3.21	15d	1	1.20mi
23333 Ridge Route Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$3,100	$3.47	2d	9	1.24mi
132 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	995	$2,400	$2.41	6d	1	1.29mi
158 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	43d	1	1.31mi
22700 Lake Forest Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,248	$3.22	4d	1	1.32mi
24151 El Tiradore Cir Mission Viejo, CA	1.0	1.0	1050	$2,550	$2.43	4d	1	1.33mi
169 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.36mi
170 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	24d	1	1.37mi
25885 Trabuco Rd #98 Lake Forest, CA	2.0	1.5	1190	$3,300	$2.77	11d	1	1.39mi
24299 Paseo De Valencia Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$3,770	$2.80	22d	7	1.41mi
205 Avenida Majorca Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,600	$2.82	43d	1	1.42mi
254 Calle Aragon Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1009	$3,000	$2.97	17d	1	1.43mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,200	$2.42	18d	1	1.43mi
74 Calle Aragon Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,700	$2.84	24d	1	1.44mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 3H Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,750	$2.25	43d	1	1.45mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,950	$2.20	43d	1	1.45mi
2269 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,700	$2.55	18d	1	1.45mi
969 Calle Aragon Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1195	$2,900	$2.43	24d	1	1.46mi
25885 Trabuco Rd #235 Lake Forest, CA	2.0	1.5	1190	$2,980	$2.50	24d	1	1.46mi
221 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,200	$2.23	24d	1	1.46mi
224 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1009	$2,600	$2.58	43d	1	1.46mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1305	$4,000	$3.07	43d	1	1.47mi
2293 Via Puerta Unit O Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$3,100	$2.93	18d	1	1.48mi
29 Calle Aragon Unit Q Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$3,100	$2.98	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $249,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,174
• − Management: −$3,174
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $7,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,716
• After-tax cash flow: $8,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+330.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2021-12-07 Sold (MLS) $129,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-05 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-10-26 Listed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2013-03-11 Sold (MLS) $38,000 CRMLS
• 2013-01-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2013-01-15 Listed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2012-05-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-04-03 Listed $72,000 CRMLS
• 2010-08-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-03-16 Price Changed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2009-12-04 Price Changed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2009-11-20 Price Changed $53,000 CRMLS
• 2008-11-24 Listed $57,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $81 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.