9052 Private Dr 3053 Dr · Ava, MO 65608

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 270 Days on market

Built 1983 5.00 ac lot $137/sqft · 42% below area Est $429k · 42% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW SEPTIC JUST INSTALLED! This Beautiful home sits atop 5 manicured acres only minutes outside of city limits! ! Property is off the 14, but far from the road with carefully thought out privacy trees and vegetation that keep it feeling more remote! Property also features a large 40x26 shop building! The house has been laid out in a way that screams elegance. When you walk in from the Carport you have a large ground level Living room with utility closet. Going upstairs you will see the laundry room which leads into the kitchen with amazing shelf space! Beyond that you have a small Foyer which continues into the main living room area. Then behind you have a hallway which has 3 bedrooms, with one bathroom in the main hall and a bathroom tucked into the master for convenience! Home is older, but sturdy! And is priced well below appraised value!

Key facts

• 40x26 shop building
• Foyer
• 5 manicured acres

Tags

• 5 MANICURED ACRES
• 40X26 SHOP BUILDING
• 2 LIVING ROOMS
• FOYER
• KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (44.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,789 (44.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.96%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,595
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -41.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3881 County Road East 14 302-a	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+4%)	20mo	$429,900	$226	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $79,382
• Equity at exit: $208,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $262,480
• Equity at exit: $431,743

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $157,512

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-466	-5% $-553	+0% $-639	+5% $-726	+10% $-812
Rent	-10% $-748	-5% $-694	+0% $-639	+5% $-585	+10% $-530
Rate	-1.0pp $-513	-0.5pp $-576	base $-639	+0.5pp $-704	+1.0pp $-770

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 270 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,999 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,999 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,999 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 250 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 249 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    status Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    BRAND NEW SEPTIC JUST INSTALLED! This Beautiful home sits atop 5 manicured acres only minutes outside of city limits! ! Property is off the 14, but far from the road with carefully thought out privacy trees and vegetation that keep it feeling more remote! Property also features a large 40x26 shop building! The house has been laid out in a way that screams elegance. When you walk in from the Carport you have a large ground level Living room with utility closet. Going upstairs you will see the laundry room which leads into the kitchen with amazing shelf space! Beyond that you have a small Foyer which continues into the main living room area. Then behind you have a hallway which has 3 bedrooms, with one bathroom in the main hall and a bathroom tucked into the master for convenience! Home is older, but sturdy! And is priced well below appraised value!

18. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    BRAND NEW SEPTIC JUST INSTALLED! This Beautiful home sits atop 5 manicured acres only minutes outside of city limits! ! Property is off the 14, but far from the road with carefully thought out privacy trees and vegetation that keep it feeling more remote! Property also features a large 40x26 shop building! The house has been laid out in a way that screams elegance. When you walk in from the Carport you have a large ground level Living room with utility closet. Going upstairs you will see the laundry room which leads into the kitchen with amazing shelf space! Beyond that you have a small Foyer which continues into the main living room area. Then behind you have a hallway which has 3 bedrooms, with one bathroom in the main hall and a bathroom tucked into the master for convenience! Home is older, but sturdy! And is priced well below appraised value!

19. 2026-04-10
    price $249,999 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    BRAND NEW SEPTIC JUST INSTALLED! This Beautiful home sits atop 5 manicured acres only minutes outside of city limits! ! Property is off the 14, but far from the road with carefully thought out privacy trees and vegetation that keep it feeling more remote! Property also features a large 40x26 shop building! The house has been laid out in a way that screams elegance. When you walk in from the Carport you have a large ground level Living room with utility closet. Going upstairs you will see the laundry room which leads into the kitchen with amazing shelf space! Beyond that you have a small Foyer which continues into the main living room area. Then behind you have a hallway which has 3 bedrooms, with one bathroom in the main hall and a bathroom tucked into the master for convenience! Home is older, but sturdy! And is priced well below appraised value!

20. 2025-09-12
    listed $275,000 Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    BRAND NEW SEPTIC JUST INSTALLED! This Beautiful home sits atop 5 manicured acres only minutes outside of city limits! ! Property is off the 14, but far from the road with carefully thought out privacy trees and vegetation that keep it feeling more remote! Property also features a large 40x26 shop building! The house has been laid out in a way that screams elegance. When you walk in from the Carport you have a large ground level Living room with utility closet. Going upstairs you will see the laundry room which leads into the kitchen with amazing shelf space! Beyond that you have a small Foyer which continues into the main living room area. Then behind you have a hallway which has 3 bedrooms, with one bathroom in the main hall and a bathroom tucked into the master for convenience! Home is older, but sturdy! And is priced well below appraised value!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$12,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,973
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-04-16 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $249,999 SOMO
• 2025-09-12 Listed $275,000 SOMO