4472 Holley Rd · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31052

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1974 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4bd/2ba home on large 2 acre lot. NO SELLER DISCLOSURES. Sold as-is. Bring your creativity and make this diamond in the rough your dream home.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 110-volt electric; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: One level; Double wide mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Driveway; Open parking available; Asphalt road access; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level; Master bathroom has no special features listed
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features; No shared/common walls; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Skyview Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 455 students, 100% FRL); Rutland Middle School (math 12% / reading 28%, grade F, #349 of 470 statewide, top 75%, 812 students, 100% FRL); Rutland High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.61%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,842
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $40,734
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31052

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $461	+0% $426	+5% $391	+10% $355
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $367	+0% $426	+5% $485	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $489	-0.5pp $458	base $426	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3998 Holley Rd Lizella, GA	3.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	14d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$535/yr (+$45/mo · 86.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$778
• After-tax cash flow: $4,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• City population: 143,186
• Population (ZIP): 9,308

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.49%
• Current HPI: 200.3778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $125,000 FMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.