Sweet Bay Plan · Lakeland, FL 33813

$309,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,895 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sweet Bay single-family home blends style and comfort like never before. From the 2-car garage, you can walk right into the heart of the home, the gourmet kitchen with counter space to spare and center island that invites family and guests to gather round. The open concept floor plan also features a lanai and a stunning great room, perfect spots for entertaining. On the 2nd floor, 3 spacious bedrooms and a full bath offer privacy and comfort. In your luxurious owner's suite with double vanity bath, walk-in closet space abounds. Come see why The Sweet Bay can't be beat.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Great room
• Owner's suite

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LANAI
• GREAT ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,450.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,240 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,450
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -10.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4007 Rutile Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,029 (+7%)	1mo	$382,900	$189	79
4019 Rutile Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,715 (-10%)	1mo	$361,920	$211	73
6757 Flagstone Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-13%)	1mo	$321,900	$196	67
3905 Lemon Tree Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-12%)	1mo	$354,900	$213	62
3975 Sunnywood Cir	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,862 (-2%)	1mo	$365,000	$196	61
6312 Prominence Point Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,062 (+9%)	0mo	$385,000	$187	45
4052 Lehman Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-13%)	1mo	$363,000	$221	45
6149 Waterman Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-12%)	1mo	$304,900	$182	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-90,015
• Equity at exit: $51,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-129,528
• Equity at exit: $30,041

Cash invested: $97,286 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 57 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.6 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $323,450 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 157 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33813

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,442 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,822
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,212/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,056

Max offer price $277,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-245	-5% $-365	+0% $-485	+5% $-605	+10% $-725
Rent	-10% $-678	-5% $-581	+0% $-485	+5% $-388	+10% $-292
Rate	-1.0pp $-310	-0.5pp $-396	base $-485	+0.5pp $-575	+1.0pp $-666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,862
• Closing costs: $10,424
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3875 Horizon Hill Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1748	$2,100	$1.20	9d	1	0.27mi
4017 Lana Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1651	$1,851	$1.12	109d	1	0.32mi
4138 Sunny Glen Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,890	$1.51	3d	1	0.52mi
6446 Polly Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2005	$1,900	$0.95	9d	1	0.68mi
6342 Hampton Pointe Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,891	$1.01	4d	1	0.68mi
3883 Resting Robin Ave Bartow, FL	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,750	$1.05	119d	1	0.74mi
2202 Morning Mist Ave Bartow, FL	4.0	3.0	2060	$1,845	$0.90	9d	1	0.82mi
2202 Morning Mist Ave Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,200	$1.17	4d	1	0.82mi
3842 Featherwood Trl Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,100	$1.41	71d	1	0.83mi
3819 Resting Robin Ave Unit NA Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,299	$1.26	119d	1	0.85mi
3305 Lounging Wren Ln Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,299	$1.26	119d	1	0.86mi
1970 Country Manor St Bartow, FL	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,216	$1.07	117d	1	0.96mi
2702 Red Egret Dr Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,140	$1.38	119d	1	1.05mi
4134 April St N Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,910	$1.52	119d	1	1.05mi
4228 April St N Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1479	$2,045	$1.38	9d	1	1.08mi
2674 Red Egret Dr Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,050	$1.13	4d	1	1.09mi
5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,800	$1.29	65d	1	1.11mi
5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,995	$1.43	119d	1	1.11mi
6980 Bentridge Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	2216	$5,300	$2.39	9d	1	1.14mi
6980 Bentridge Dr Unit 4/2 Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2216	$5,300	$2.39	9d	1	1.14mi
6783 Treymont Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2536	$3,495	$1.38	73d	1	1.23mi
6063 Highlands Grace Blvd Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2536	$3,195	$1.26	119d	1	1.26mi
3858 Whitedove Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,450	$1.13	114d	1	1.26mi
6063 Highlands Grace Blvd Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2536	$3,495	$1.38	9d	1	1.26mi
3701 Feather Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$2,099	$1.58	9d	1	1.34mi
3016 Upton St Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$2,395	$1.55	9d	1	1.36mi
5619 6th St SE Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1275	$1,850	$1.45	7d	1	1.37mi
1920 Griffin Trl Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	2440	$2,336	$0.96	65d	1	1.42mi
5619 Fischer Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,400	$1.29	9d	1	1.44mi
3461 Longview Ln Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	2348	$2,650	$1.13	9d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Lakeland, FL 33813 (Sweet Bay Plan)
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $13 (frequency not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Central air (cooling)
• Home design: Single-family planModel name: Sweet Bay
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1895

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Sweet Bay (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $309,990 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $309,990 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $309,990 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $309,990 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $309,990 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $309,990 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 132 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 131 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 130 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 129 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $309,990 Active 128 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 127 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 126 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 125 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 124 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 123 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $309,990 Active 122 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 121 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 120 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 119 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 118 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 117 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $309,990 Active 115 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    pricedays on market $309,990 Active 114 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $304,990 Active 113 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $304,990 Active 112 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $304,990 Active 111 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $304,990 Active 110 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $304,990 Active 109 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $304,990 Active 108 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $304,990 Active 107 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $304,990 Active 106 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $304,990 Active 102 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $304,990 Active 101 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $304,990 Active 100 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $304,990 Active 98 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $304,990 Active 96 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $304,990 Active 95 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,463
• − Property taxes: −$5,212
• − Insurance: −$1,737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$10,108
• Taxable loss: −$12,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Sweet Bay single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — A new faucet can refresh the kitchen and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can enhance the kitchen's appeal and make it more inviting. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spessard L Holland Elementary D FL #1,171/2,144 Nat'l #14,249/41,679 Middle Bartow Middle School F FL #421/571 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Bartow Senior High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,674
• Household income: $99,497
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.20%
• Current HPI: 296.1207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Lakeland, FL 33813 (Sweet Bay Plan)
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $13 (frequency not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Central air (cooling)
• Home design: Single-family planModel name: Sweet Bay
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1895

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Sweet Bay (new construction plan)