160 Chase St · Bowling Green, VA 22427

$58,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1940 6,969 sqft lot $71/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you looking for a place to built your dream homes, in the charming town of Bowling Green You must see this piece of property, conveniently located near schools, shopping dining, and commuter routes. The existing building is not safe to enter but it has a septic in the property . The value is in the land. Great Location. Buyer to do the due diligences about utilities and anything else pertaining to this property.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 265 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 2.4% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#357 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $58k implies a 480% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.36%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,467
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: -77.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Davis Ct	0.35mi	2/1.0	840 (+3%)	3mo	$240,000	$286	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $31,411
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $79,878
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22427

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $330/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $450

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $674	-5% $657	+0% $641	+5% $624	+10% $608
Rent	-10% $541	-5% $591	+0% $641	+5% $691	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $670	-0.5pp $656	base $641	+0.5pp $626	+1.0pp $611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,000 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $58,000 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $58,000 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $58,000 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,000 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,000 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,000 Active 248 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $58,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    If you looking for a place to built your dream homes, in the charming town of Bowling Green You must see this piece of property, conveniently located near schools, shopping dining, and commuter routes. The existing building is not safe to enter but it has a septic in the property . The value is in the land. Great Location. Buyer to do the due diligences about utilities and anything else pertaining to this property.

15. 2025-12-18
    price $70,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    If you looking for a place to built your dream homes, in the charming town of Bowling Green You must see this piece of property, conveniently located near schools, shopping dining, and commuter routes. The existing building is not safe to enter but it has a septic in the property . The value is in the land. Great Location. Buyer to do the due diligences about utilities and anything else pertaining to this property.

16. 2025-09-26
    listed $85,000 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    If you looking for a place to built your dream homes, in the charming town of Bowling Green You must see this piece of property, conveniently located near schools, shopping dining, and commuter routes. The existing building is not safe to enter but it has a septic in the property . The value is in the land. Great Location. Buyer to do the due diligences about utilities and anything else pertaining to this property.

17. 2025-09-25
    historical $85,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    If you looking for a place to built your dream homes, in the charming town of Bowling Green You must see this piece of property, conveniently located near schools, shopping dining, and commuter routes. The existing building is not safe to enter but it has a septic in the property . The value is in the land. Great Location. Buyer to do the due diligences about utilities and anything else pertaining to this property.

18. 2021-03-06
    historical
19. 2020-08-25
    listed $49,900 Active
20. 2019-03-15
    soldstatus $10,000 Closed
21. 2019-01-29
    status Pending
22. 2019-01-28
    listed $10,000
23. 2019-01-23
    listed $10,000 Active
24. 1993-11-01
    soldstatus $45,000
25. 1990-10-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $330 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 44.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$330
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $7,161
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,719
• After-tax cash flow: $5,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #14386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowling Green, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,301

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.99%
• Current HPI: 294.9002
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+132.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-25 Coming Soon $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-25 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-15 Sold (MLS) $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-29 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-28 Listed $10,000 CAAR
• 2019-01-23 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $330 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.