821 Cedar Break Ct · White Knoll, SC 29073

$244,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1999 1.03 ac lot $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering privacy and room to spread out that’s hard to find. The property provides a great blend of peaceful surroundings with the convenience of nearby amenities. Inside, the layout is functional and comfortable, with a natural flow between living spaces and bedrooms. While the interior maintains its original character, it presents a great opportunity for buyers to make it their own over time. Whether you’re looking for extra outdoor space, a private setting, or a home with potential, this property checks the boxes. Disclaimer: CMLS has not reviewed and, therefore, does not

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Privacy fence; Paved road access; Approximately 1.03-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Tile flooring; Ceiling fan
• Bedrooms: Main-level master bedroom with private bath, ceiling fan, walk-in closet, and carpeted floors; Main-level bedroom 2 with shared bath, tub/shower, ceiling fan, and carpeted floors; Main-level bedroom 3 with private bath, ceiling fan, and carpeted floors
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Laminate in great room; Tile in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings in the great room; Ceiling fans throughout main living areas and bedrooms; Laminate flooring in the great room; Tile floor in the kitchen; Office
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry in a closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-134/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carolina Springs Elementary (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #359 of 597 statewide, top 60%, 850 students, 41% FRL); White Knoll High (math 47% / reading 85%, grade B, #81 of 196 statewide, top 42%, 2,204 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $244k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,730 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-39,915
• Equity at exit: $36,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,286
• Equity at exit: $21,097

Cash invested: $68,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29073

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $845/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,851

Max offer price $242,025

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,000
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical Active - Contingent
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $244,000 Active
4. 2000-10-02
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 1999-09-27
   soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$546/yr (+$45/mo · 64.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,668
• − Property taxes: −$845
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$4,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — White Knoll

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Knoll, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 51,471
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,156
• Household income: $77,229
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.20%
• Current HPI: 249.8957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+1425.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $244,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2000-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $845 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.