2200 Lancaster Dr SE #26 · Salem, OR 97317

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Manufactured · 407 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $121/sqft · 43% above area Est $116k · 43% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location! Corner lot 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with 1350 sf of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with a great sized living room with tons of natural light! The home features an open kitchen with beautiful brown cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances, a pantry and a deep kitchen sink. The master bedroom is roomy with lots of light, and a walk-in closet. The other two bedrooms are nice sized as well! Outside, there is a carport with a long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. To see more of this home, contact the community manager Ronda. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Walk-in closet
• Carport

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 407 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 407 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,568
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 42.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2232 42nd Ave SE #704	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-5%)	1mo	$58,000	$45	79
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+3%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	76
3100 Turner Rd SE #625	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+1%)	0mo	$235,000	$171	70
3100 Turner Rd S #220	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+1%)	1mo	$199,500	$146	66
3236 Turner Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	54
3100 Turner Rd SE #206	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+6%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	50
3180 Turner Rd SE	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+6%)	5mo	$25,000	$17	50
2730 Oakland Lp SE	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-13%)	6mo	$35,000	$29	48
3100 Turner (620) Rd SE	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+15%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	47
3100 Turner Rd SE #620	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+15%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	47
2750 Oakland Loop SE	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-13%)	9mo	$40,000	$34	46
3554 Turner Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-13%)	1mo	$130,000	$109	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,174
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,906
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	14d	1	0.30mi
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.30mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	44d	1	0.48mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,099	$2.27	14d	1	0.58mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	23d	1	0.84mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,299	$2.46	14d	1	0.90mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	14d	5	0.95mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	44d	1	0.97mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	14d	1	1.08mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,958	$2.03	14d	26	1.10mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	14d	1	1.12mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	23d	1	1.12mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,802	$1.94	14d	25	1.25mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4437-206 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	932	$1,525	$1.64	44d	1	1.34mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4435-201 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	888	$1,525	$1.72	23d	1	1.34mi
178 Lancaster Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	14d	1	1.41mi
4836 Tanglewood Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,150	$1.63	23d	1	1.42mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 145 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1207	$1,595	$1.32	14d	1	1.45mi
124 Stafford Ln NE Unit 124-203 Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,595	$1.52	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 407 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 406 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 405 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 404 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 402 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 399 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 398 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 397 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 396 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 390 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 389 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 388 DOM
15. 2025-09-06
    price $199,900 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Corner lot 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with 1350 sf of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with a great sized living room with tons of natural light! The home features an open kitchen with beautiful brown cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances, a pantry and a deep kitchen sink. The master bedroom is roomy with lots of light, and a walk-in closet. The other two bedrooms are nice sized as well! Outside, there is a carport with a long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. To see more of this home, contact the community manager Ronda. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

16. 2025-05-19
    status Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Corner lot 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with 1350 sf of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with a great sized living room with tons of natural light! The home features an open kitchen with beautiful brown cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances, a pantry and a deep kitchen sink. The master bedroom is roomy with lots of light, and a walk-in closet. The other two bedrooms are nice sized as well! Outside, there is a carport with a long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. To see more of this home, contact the community manager Ronda. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

17. 2025-05-17
    historical 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Corner lot 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with 1350 sf of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with a great sized living room with tons of natural light! The home features an open kitchen with beautiful brown cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances, a pantry and a deep kitchen sink. The master bedroom is roomy with lots of light, and a walk-in closet. The other two bedrooms are nice sized as well! Outside, there is a carport with a long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. To see more of this home, contact the community manager Ronda. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

18. 2025-05-05
    listed $215,000 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Corner lot 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with 1350 sf of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with a great sized living room with tons of natural light! The home features an open kitchen with beautiful brown cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances, a pantry and a deep kitchen sink. The master bedroom is roomy with lots of light, and a walk-in closet. The other two bedrooms are nice sized as well! Outside, there is a carport with a long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. To see more of this home, contact the community manager Ronda. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $1,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $3,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and curb appeal, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value.
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-05 Listed $215,000 Zillow