3590 Belle Meade Rd · Bumpass, VA 23024

$302,700

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $262k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on 2+ acres, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to spread out. The oversized detached garage provides ideal space for a workshop, storage, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place with room to grow, this property delivers both space and potential in a peaceful setting.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Oversized garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,000 (living area) and 754 above-grade unfinished area
• Exterior features: Detached oversized garage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the first floor (includes at least two bedrooms; specific counts available in room details)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (tub and shower)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with heat pump
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Resale condition; Full bathroom with tub and shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $303k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Bumpass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $303k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,300 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2105 Bagby Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	17mo	$299,950	$300	74
3721 Belle Meade Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+14%)	10mo	$299,950	$262	59
2535 Bagby Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+14%)	24mo	$226,000	$198	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-46,158
• Equity at exit: $58,923

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-41,904
• Equity at exit: $50,484

Cash invested: $84,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23024

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,587
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,351

Max offer price $275,081

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,675
• Closing costs: $9,081
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   Tucked away on 2+ acres, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to spread out. The oversized detached garage provides ideal space for a workshop, storage, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place with room to grow, this property delivers both space and potential in a peaceful setting.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   Tucked away on 2+ acres, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to spread out. The oversized detached garage provides ideal space for a workshop, storage, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place with room to grow, this property delivers both space and potential in a peaceful setting.

3. 2026-04-30
   historical 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   Tucked away on 2+ acres, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to spread out. The oversized detached garage provides ideal space for a workshop, storage, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place with room to grow, this property delivers both space and potential in a peaceful setting.

4. 2026-04-29
   listed $302,700 Active
5. 2026-04-18
   historical $302,700 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   Tucked away on 2+ acres, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to spread out. The oversized detached garage provides ideal space for a workshop, storage, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place with room to grow, this property delivers both space and potential in a peaceful setting.

6. 2026-04-18
   historical $302,700

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   Tucked away on 2+ acres, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to spread out. The oversized detached garage provides ideal space for a workshop, storage, or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place with room to grow, this property delivers both space and potential in a peaceful setting.

7. 2016-09-28
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$758/yr (+$63/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,956
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$1,514
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$8,806
• Taxable loss: −$7,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,751
• After-tax cash flow: $-125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bumpass

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,770

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.99%
• Current HPI: 351.4933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+450.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $302,700 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $302,700 CAAR
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $302,700 CVRMLS
• 2016-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,724 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.