11155 Gifford Dr · Spring Hill, FL 34608

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1984 10,835 sqft lot Est $206k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TWO BEDROOM HOME IN QUIET AREA!!!! GREAT ROOM HOME HAS BEEN USED AS A WINTER HOME. NEEDS SOM TLC. BACKS TO LARGE OPEN GRASSED DRA FOR GREAT PRIVACY!!! HAS ACRYLIC ENCLOSED SCREEN PORCH AND LARGE OVERSIZED GARAGE. NEW GDO. VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Extra storage
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($477/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Explorer K-8 (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 1,617 students, 69% FRL); West Hernando Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 695 students, 58% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,852 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,660
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11155 Gifford Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	910 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$220	99
11493 Sheffield Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	940 (+3%)	7mo	$217,500	$231	63
11323 Elgin Blvd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+12%)	1mo	$225,900	$221	59
5249 Courtland Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0	966 (+6%)	11mo	$218,000	$226	42
10471 Bradford St	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,045 (+15%)	22mo	$250,000	$239	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,685
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-45,533
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34608

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,568

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $96	+0% $40	+5% $-17	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-24	+0% $40	+5% $104	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $91	base $40	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11201 Kangley Ln Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1105	$1,695	$1.53	6d	1	0.53mi
5294 Fairhaven Ave Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1105	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	0.70mi
4253 Central Park Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,445	$1.31	3d	8	1.36mi
4224 Portillo Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,462	$1.33	1d	2	1.46mi
4247 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,300	$1.62	12d	1	1.48mi
4243 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,300	$1.62	26d	1	1.49mi
4225 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,300	$1.62	26d	1	1.49mi
4353 Azora Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	979	$1,650	$1.69	26d	1	1.49mi
4400 Millwood Rd Unit E Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.5	864	$1,250	$1.45	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   price $200,000
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $199,995 Active
4. 2024-09-25
   soldstatus $180,000
5. 2024-09-17
   soldstatus $180,000 Closed 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   TWO BEDROOM HOME IN QUIET AREA!!!! GREAT ROOM HOME HAS BEEN USED AS A WINTER HOME. NEEDS SOM TLC. BACKS TO LARGE OPEN GRASSED DRA FOR GREAT PRIVACY!!! HAS ACRYLIC ENCLOSED SCREEN PORCH AND LARGE OVERSIZED GARAGE. NEW GDO. VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW.

6. 2024-09-17
   soldstatus $180,000 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   TWO BEDROOM HOME IN QUIET AREA!!!! GREAT ROOM HOME HAS BEEN USED AS A WINTER HOME. NEEDS SOM TLC. BACKS TO LARGE OPEN GRASSED DRA FOR GREAT PRIVACY!!! HAS ACRYLIC ENCLOSED SCREEN PORCH AND LARGE OVERSIZED GARAGE. NEW GDO. VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW.

7. 2024-08-26
   status Pending 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   TWO BEDROOM HOME IN QUIET AREA!!!! GREAT ROOM HOME HAS BEEN USED AS A WINTER HOME. NEEDS SOM TLC. BACKS TO LARGE OPEN GRASSED DRA FOR GREAT PRIVACY!!! HAS ACRYLIC ENCLOSED SCREEN PORCH AND LARGE OVERSIZED GARAGE. NEW GDO. VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW.

8. 2024-05-03
   listed $199,900 Active 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   TWO BEDROOM HOME IN QUIET AREA!!!! GREAT ROOM HOME HAS BEEN USED AS A WINTER HOME. NEEDS SOM TLC. BACKS TO LARGE OPEN GRASSED DRA FOR GREAT PRIVACY!!! HAS ACRYLIC ENCLOSED SCREEN PORCH AND LARGE OVERSIZED GARAGE. NEW GDO. VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW.

9. 2024-05-03
   listed $199,900 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   TWO BEDROOM HOME IN QUIET AREA!!!! GREAT ROOM HOME HAS BEEN USED AS A WINTER HOME. NEEDS SOM TLC. BACKS TO LARGE OPEN GRASSED DRA FOR GREAT PRIVACY!!! HAS ACRYLIC ENCLOSED SCREEN PORCH AND LARGE OVERSIZED GARAGE. NEW GDO. VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW.

10. 1984-04-01
    soldstatus $29,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$717
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,658
• Household income: $64,345
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 647.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.94%
• Current HPI: 305.1933
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+571.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $199,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-17 Sold (MLS) $180,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-09-17 Sold (MLS) $180,000 HCAR
• 2024-08-26 Pending — HCAR
• 2024-05-03 Listed $199,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-05-03 Listed $199,900 HCAR
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,281 · -43.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.