Hickory Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$351,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,470 Sq. Ft. The Hickory is a beautifully balanced two-story home that blends open concept living with defined, functional spaces. With its flowing main level, upstairs retreat, and intuitive room placement, this design offers flexibility and comfort for every stage of life. From the welcoming front porch, you step into a bright foyer that opens to the heart of the home. To one side, a secondary bedroom and full bath create an ideal guest suite or quiet workspace. Straight ahead, the home unfolds into a spacious great room at the back of the house, anchored by large windows and open sightlines to the casual dining area and kitchen. The kitchen features a central island, walk-in pantry, and easy access to the covered patio, perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor living. Practical touches like a first-floor laundry, tech space with built-in desk, and available covered patio extensions enhance everyday living. Privately tucked on the first floor, the primary suite is a private retreat with a spa-inspired ensuite bath featuring dual vanities for convenience, a spacious shower with a seat, and a relaxing soaking tub. Attached to the bathroom is a spacious walk-in closet with ample hanging space and built in shelving. Upstairs, the game room serves as a lively central hub surrounded by two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a convenient storage area. Open railings overlook the foyer, adds light and connection between levels.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Large island
• Private retreat

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $351,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $409,322.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $352k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-495 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,417 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,322
• List price: $351,990
• Delta: -14.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4960 Pismo Ray Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,412 (-2%)	1mo	$284,999	$118	84
27034 Flower Isle Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,262 (-8%)	2mo	$375,315	$166	75
2237 Sonder Shore Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,554 (+3%)	2mo	$379,990	$149	69
4669 Cleo Day Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,488 (+1%)	2mo	$359,990	$145	66
4605 Green Arobol Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,430 (-2%)	1mo	$339,990	$140	65
1028 Open Sky Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,448 (-1%)	0mo	$400,000	$163	57
27219 Blue Pool Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,657 (+8%)	0mo	$419,900	$158	51
5614 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+13%)	2mo	$499,236	$179	46
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-12%)	2mo	$335,990	$155	45
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,102 (-15%)	2mo	$331,990	$158	43
27103 Blue Pool Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,134 (-14%)	0mo	$299,888	$141	42
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,134 (-14%)	2mo	$305,000	$143	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-106,464
• Equity at exit: $61,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-166,574
• Equity at exit: $35,391

Cash invested: $114,610 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 228 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $360,495 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,140/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,581

Max offer price $337,704

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-354	+0% $-495	+5% $-636	+10% $-778
Rent	-10% $-728	-5% $-612	+0% $-495	+5% $-378	+10% $-262
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-391	base $-495	+0.5pp $-601	+1.0pp $-709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,331
• Closing costs: $12,280
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	28d	1	0.18mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.31mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,095	$1.12	2d	1	0.34mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$3,150	$1.12	13d	1	0.38mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	93d	1	0.43mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	28d	1	0.45mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	13d	24	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	2d	1	0.52mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	73d	1	0.56mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,595	$1.20	19d	1	0.58mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	4d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	70d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	39d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.59mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	0d	1	0.71mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	93d	1	0.77mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	2d	1	0.95mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	21d	1	1.00mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	0d	1	1.02mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	66d	1	1.02mi
26123 Venus Trap Trl Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	8d	1	1.06mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	93d	1	1.12mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,499	$1.16	41d	1	1.12mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	62d	1	1.13mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	62d	1	1.14mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.14mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.16mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	47d	1	1.17mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	73d	1	1.18mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,195	$1.24	21d	1	1.21mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,120	$1.27	21d	1	1.25mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	21d	1	1.26mi
6303 Golden Seaton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1908	$2,350	$1.23	11d	1	1.28mi
3083 Sunset Glory Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,300	$1.01	42d	1	1.30mi
584 Santa Rosa Hills Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2708	$3,200	$1.18	2d	1	1.33mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	0d	1	1.33mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	39d	1	1.33mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	62d	1	1.33mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	53d	1	1.35mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	13d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $351,990 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $351,990 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $351,990 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $351,990 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $351,990 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $351,990 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $351,990 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $351,990 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $351,990 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $351,990 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $351,990 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $351,990 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $351,990 Active 280 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $351,990 Active 279 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $351,990 Active 278 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $351,990 Active 276 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $346,990 Active 275 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $346,990 Active 274 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $346,990 Active 273 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $346,990 Active 272 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $346,990 Active 271 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $346,990 Active 270 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $346,990 Active 269 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $346,990 Active 268 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $346,990 Active 267 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $346,990 Active 265 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $346,990 Active 264 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $346,990 Active 263 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $346,990 Active 262 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $346,990 Active 261 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $346,990 Active 260 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $346,990 Active 259 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $346,990 Active 258 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $346,990 Active 257 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $346,990 Active 256 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $346,990 Active 255 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $346,990 Active 254 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $346,990 Active 252 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $346,990 Active 250 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $346,990 Active 249 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $346,990 Active 246 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $346,990 Active 245 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $346,990 Active 244 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $346,990 Active 243 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $346,990 Active 237 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $346,990 Active 236 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $346,990 Active 235 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $346,990 Active 232 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $346,990 Active 231 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $346,990 Active 230 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,928
• − Property taxes: −$6,140
• − Insurance: −$2,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,836
• − Management: −$2,836
• − Depreciation: −$11,908
• Taxable loss: −$13,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,179
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, two-story home with modern amenities and a spacious layout is ready for immediate occupancy and can be easily upgraded to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $336,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $345,990 Zillow