Hickory Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$339,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 389 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,470 Sq. Ft. The Hickory is a beautifully balanced two-story home that blends open concept living with defined, functional spaces. With its flowing main level, upstairs retreat, and intuitive room placement, this design offers flexibility and comfort for every stage of life. From the welcoming front porch, you step into a bright foyer that opens to the heart of the home. To one side, a secondary bedroom and full bath create an ideal guest suite or quiet workspace. Straight ahead, the home unfolds into a spacious great room at the back of the house, anchored by large windows and open sightlines to the casual dining area and kitchen. The kitchen features a central island, walk-in pantry, and easy access to the covered patio, perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor living. Practical touches like a first-floor laundry, tech space with built-in desk, and available covered patio extensions enhance everyday living. Privately tucked on the first floor, the primary suite is a private retreat with a spa-inspired ensuite bath featuring dual vanities for convenience, a spacious shower with a seat, and a relaxing soaking tub. Attached to the bathroom is a spacious walk-in closet with ample hanging space and built in shelving. Upstairs, the game room serves as a lively central hub surrounded by two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a convenient storage area. Open railings overlook the foyer, adds light and connection between levels.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Large island
• Private retreat

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $408,528.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-581 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4476 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,767 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.10%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,528
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -16.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5307 Mystic Sea Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,545 (+3%)	2mo	$367,000	$144	81
5603 Teal Marlene Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,529 (+2%)	1mo	$424,915	$168	70
4664 Peony Green Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,425 (-2%)	0mo	$334,990	$138	68
5615 Teal Marlene Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,671 (+8%)	3mo	$466,340	$175	57
453 Horizon Light Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,642 (+7%)	2mo	$469,900	$178	56
27331 Blue Pool Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (-1%)	2mo	$385,900	$158	55
5619 Teal Marlene Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,140 (-13%)	3mo	$410,525	$192	48
27039 Costa Creek Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+13%)	1mo	$494,610	$178	48
2224 Sonder Shore Dr	0.46mi	5/5.0 (+1)	2,821 (+14%)	0mo	$413,990	$147	42
1040 Open Sky Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,806 (+14%)	0mo	$440,000	$157	41
5053 Marcasca Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-12%)	2mo	$367,900	$170	40
4776 Luna Landing Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,135 (-14%)	2mo	$309,990	$145	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-111,508
• Equity at exit: $60,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-176,752
• Equity at exit: $35,322

Cash invested: $114,388 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 259 active · 111 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $358,990 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 4476
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,142
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$511 /mo · $6,128/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,574

Max offer price $324,386

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-299	-5% $-440	+0% $-581	+5% $-723	+10% $-864
Rent	-10% $-806	-5% $-694	+0% $-581	+5% $-469	+10% $-357
Rate	-1.0pp $-376	-0.5pp $-478	base $-581	+0.5pp $-687	+1.0pp $-795

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,132
• Closing costs: $12,256
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5118 Winslow Grove Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,200	$1.19	26d	1	0.15mi
5118 Winslow Grove Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,200	$1.19	10d	1	0.15mi
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	119d	1	0.18mi
27115 River Birch Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1863	$2,275	$1.22	36d	1	0.19mi
27147 Breakaway Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,295	$1.07	24d	1	0.23mi
5310 Paradise Cove Ln Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2688	$3,000	$1.12	2d	1	0.26mi
5310 Paradise Cove Ln Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2688	$3,000	$1.12	21d	1	0.26mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1758	$2,957	$1.68	0d	23	0.31mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,095	$1.12	31d	1	0.34mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,095	$1.12	3d	1	0.34mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$3,150	$1.12	3d	1	0.38mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$3,150	$1.12	104d	1	0.38mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	184d	1	0.43mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	119d	1	0.45mi
27111 Newport Trace Ln Unit 27111 Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	10d	1	0.49mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	93d	1	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1890	$2,800	$1.48	0d	26	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	104d	24	0.52mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	165d	1	0.56mi
4607 Dana Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2152	$2,500	$1.16	10d	1	0.57mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,395	$1.11	65d	1	0.58mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	83d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	96d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	3d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	114d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	130d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	2d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	161d	1	0.59mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	92d	1	0.71mi
5810 Linda Cove Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2465	$2,600	$1.05	3d	1	0.73mi
5810 Linda Cove Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2465	$2,600	$1.05	14d	1	0.73mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	184d	1	0.77mi
5822 Majestic Sky Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,249	$1.38	65d	1	0.78mi
408 Camino Bay Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,200	$0.71	7d	1	0.85mi
1024 Greenshank Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2390	$2,900	$1.21	53d	1	0.85mi
1008 Caramel Shores Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$3,100	$1.24	10d	1	0.87mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	93d	1	0.95mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	3d	1	0.95mi
3057 Pensacola Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1840	$2,200	$1.20	29d	1	0.99mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	113d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $339,990 Active 389 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   pricedays on market $339,990 Active 388 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $349,990 Active 387 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 386 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $349,990 Active 383 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $349,990 Active 382 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 381 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 380 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 379 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 378 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 377 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 373 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 372 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 371 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 370 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 369 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 368 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 367 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 366 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 365 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 364 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 363 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 362 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 361 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 360 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 359 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 358 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 357 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 356 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 355 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 354 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 353 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 352 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    price $349,990 Active 351 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 351 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $339,990 Active 350 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $339,990 Active 349 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $339,990 Active 348 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $339,990 Active 347 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $339,990 Active 346 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $339,990 Active 345 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $339,990 Active 344 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $339,990 Active 343 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $351,990 Active 342 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $351,990 Active 341 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $351,990 Active 340 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,884
• − Property taxes: −$6,128
• − Insurance: −$2,043
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,724
• − Management: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$11,884
• Taxable loss: −$14,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,440
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, two-story home with modern amenities and a spacious layout is ready for immediate occupancy and can be easily upgraded to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $336,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $345,990 Zillow