Plan 2565 Modeled Plan · South Hill, WA 98375

$604,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 394 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Loft
• Kitchen island

Tags

• PEDESTAL SINK
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LOFT
• SMART THERMOSTAT

🏗️ New construction. The $604,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $683,455.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $605k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $531k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $464k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $464k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in WA, #1,620 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Puyallup School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridgecrest Elementary (479 students, 43% FRL); Ferrucci Jr High (819 students, 52% FRL); Emerald Ridge High School (1,537 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 27% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,642/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 541% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($532k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $464,228 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.62%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $683,455
• List price: $604,950
• Delta: -11.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13915 120th St E	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,564 (-0%)	6mo	$655,000	$255	80
13314 120th St E	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,828 (+10%)	1mo	$845,000	$299	71
12703 120th Street Ct E #20	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,622 (+2%)	4mo	$751,233	$287	62
13208 116th Street Ct E	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,338 (-9%)	7mo	$546,000	$234	58
11403 136th Ave E	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,807 (+9%)	2mo	$975,000	$347	58
13808 108th Street Ct E	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,625 (+2%)	1mo	$1,048,125	$399	57
11002 Shawnee Rd E	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,796 (+9%)	1mo	$1,075,000	$384	56
13725 111th Street Ct E	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,763 (+8%)	2mo	$1,050,000	$380	54
12038 126th Avenue Ct E #13	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,687 (+5%)	2mo	$662,950	$247	54
12708 115th Street Ct E	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,445 (-5%)	4mo	$780,000	$319	52
12050 126th Avenue Ct E #11	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,702 (+5%)	5mo	$640,625	$237	52
12008 132nd Avenue Ct E	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (-14%)	7mo	$550,000	$249	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-178,902
• Equity at exit: $101,905

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-246,088
• Equity at exit: $59,093

Cash invested: $191,367 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98375

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,642 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,584
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$854 /mo · $10,252/yr
• Insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$975
• Net cashflow: $-1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,979

Max offer price $530,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-583	-5% $-820	+0% $-1,056	+5% $-1,292	+10% $-1,528
Rent	-10% $-1,423	-5% $-1,239	+0% $-1,056	+5% $-872	+10% $-689
Rate	-1.0pp $-712	-0.5pp $-882	base $-1,056	+0.5pp $-1,233	+1.0pp $-1,413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,864
• Closing costs: $20,504
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11618 Jennifer Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	3149	$5,800	$1.84	0d	1	0.28mi
2406 43rd Ave SE Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1877	$3,135	$1.67	0d	1	0.86mi
13011 122nd Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	2176	$3,100	$1.42	45d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $604,950 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $604,950 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $604,950 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $604,950 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $604,950 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $604,950 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $604,950 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $604,950 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $604,950 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $604,950 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $604,950 Active 377 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $604,950 Active 376 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $604,950 Active 375 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $604,950 Active 374 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $604,950 Active 373 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    price $604,950 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    * Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

17. 2026-02-21
    price $594,950 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    * Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

18. 2026-01-24
    price $589,950 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    * Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

19. 2025-08-08
    price $584,950 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    * Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

20. 2025-06-20
    price $594,950 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    * Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

21. 2025-06-05
    price $614,950 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    * Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

22. 2025-05-23
    listed $624,950 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    * Den * Pedestal sink with polished edge mirror at powder bath * Architectural composition roof shingles with limited lifetime warranty * Extra storage space * Green Label Plus® certified polyester textured carpeting with cushion * Upstairs laundry room * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Greenbelt homesites available * Mountain views * Near local schools * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,284
• − Property taxes: −$10,252
• − Insurance: −$3,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,457
• − Management: −$4,457
• − Depreciation: −$19,882
• Taxable loss: −$25,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puyallup School District
• NCES district ID: 5306960
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,291
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #52 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1620

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 76,707
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,187
• Household income: $117,074
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 541.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 8% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.98%
• Current HPI: 285.0074
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.79%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $604,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $594,950 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $589,950 Zillow
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $584,950 Zillow
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $594,950 Zillow
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $614,950 Zillow
• 2025-05-23 Listed $624,950 Zillow