12161 Geneva Way · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$69,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 1,120 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 2019 home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a modern open layout and comfortable living space. Located in a great community with access to a pool and park, this home is a fantastic opportunity at a great value. Lot rent is $1,030/month and includes water, trash service, and access to the community pool and park amenities. Measurements are believed to be accurate but should be independently verified by buyers. Don’t miss out on this great deal!

Key facts

• Modern open layout
• Access to pool
• Access to park

Tags

• MODERN OPEN LAYOUT
• ACCESS TO POOL
• ACCESS TO PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax amount: $590 (2025)

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: 1120 building area; Foundation details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.32%
• DSCR: 3.24
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $40,884
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $103,971
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $858	-5% $834	+0% $810	+5% $786	+10% $762
Rent	-10% $681	-5% $746	+0% $810	+5% $874	+10% $939
Rate	-1.0pp $845	-0.5pp $828	base $810	+0.5pp $792	+1.0pp $774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7405 123rd St W Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	970	$1,289	$1.33	25d	2	0.32mi
12625 Germane Ave Unit 9 St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	1007	$1,495	$1.48	25d	1	0.40mi
12655 Germane Ave Apt 5 St Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,495	$1.25	17d	1	0.44mi
12685 Germane Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1560	$1,695	$1.09	4d	5	0.45mi
12733 Germane Ave Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	25d	5	0.46mi
12790 Germane Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,420	$1.29	25d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-24
   listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $9,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,200
• After-tax cash flow: $7,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2019 manufactured home is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and minimal maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to increase its value through minor cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Install new window treatments — Enhances interior aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — Enhances interior aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $69,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid