31406 Bentley Pines Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE IS JUNE 2026. Welcome to the Forest plan located at one of the most sought-after communities in Fulshear, Tamarron. This home offers an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room with a covered back patio. The primary suite is located at the rear of the home for privacy. Three secondary bedrooms are centrally positioned by the front of the home. The Forest plan simplicity is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy Tamarron’ s resort-style pools, splash pad, fitness centers, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway. Zoned to top-rated Katy ISD schools.

Key facts

• Resort-style pools
• Open-concept kitchen
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE
• RESORT-STYLE POOLS
• SPLASH PAD
• FITNESS CENTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction by D.R. Horton; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Facing not specified; 1,717 living area
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Granite counters; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,909.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $255,335 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,909
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30207 Fryers Field Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,717 (0%)	1mo	$294,990	$172	99
30202 Fryers Field Ct	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,717 (0%)	1mo	$304,990	$178	99
3818 Turnpike Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,717 (0%)	0mo	$294,990	$172	98
3811 Turnpike Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,717 (0%)	1mo	$294,990	$172	97
3738 Marino Mile Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,717 (0%)	1mo	$289,990	$169	97
3731 Turnpike Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,717 (0%)	1mo	$299,990	$175	96
3622 Turnpike Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	1mo	$304,990	$172	88
30118 Honey Hill Ct	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	1mo	$314,990	$177	85
31206 Bentley Pines Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-10%)	0mo	$279,990	$181	77
3615 Turnpike Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-10%)	0mo	$289,990	$188	77
3827 Turnpike Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-11%)	0mo	$274,990	$179	74
3638 Turnpike Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-11%)	1mo	$274,990	$179	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-68,796
• Equity at exit: $45,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-104,071
• Equity at exit: $26,276

Cash invested: $85,095 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,553 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,559/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,795

Max offer price $276,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $19	-5% $-86	+0% $-191	+5% $-296	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-292	+0% $-191	+5% $-90	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-114	base $-191	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,977
• Closing costs: $9,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3615 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,366	$2.30	2d	38	0.49mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,383	$1.39	2d	25	0.53mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	44d	1	0.61mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,292	$1.37	2d	17	0.87mi
3711 Daintree Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,101	$1.11	20d	1	1.24mi
29202 Jarvis Bay Pass Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1563	$2,200	$1.41	6d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,990 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,990 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $294,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,024
• − Property taxes: −$4,559
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,451
• − Management: −$2,451
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$8,841
• Taxable loss: −$7,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — These updates can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A modern HVAC system can improve the home's energy efficiency and attract more buyers.
• Both Upgrading the exterior siding and paint — A modern exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — These updates can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A modern HVAC system can improve the home's energy efficiency and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the exterior siding and paint — A modern exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $294,990 HARMLS