652 Fern St · Jacksonville, FL 32206

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1927 5,227 sqft lot Est $158k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent condition. Completely redone. Large Bonus Room and utility/ office with new tile floors. BONUS - Detached building in back w/2 sections was used for pottery shop & storage. Can be easily converted to 2 studio apartments. Could bring in $300 rent each. Own house w/FHA mortgage and have enough income to cover PITI + maintenance.

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Central heat and air
• Spacious building

Tags

• SPACIOUS BUILDING
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• 3 YEAR OLD WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; City water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family home; One level
• Exterior features: No private pool; Lot of approximately 0.12 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Investment use
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 194 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $99k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.77%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,418
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 W 41st St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-6%)	2mo	$125,000	$99	69
4710 Springfield Blvd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-11%)	4mo	$170,000	$141	68
3918 Springfield Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-10%)	3mo	$185,000	$151	66
212 W 38th St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (-2%)	7mo	$155,000	$117	66
329 Linwood Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+11%)	7mo	$70,000	$47	65
662 Beechwood St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (-11%)	4mo	$153,000	$127	63
3317 N Laura St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (+1%)	3mo	$65,000	$48	55
803 Escambia St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+6%)	6mo	$149,900	$104	52
317 Chestnut Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-4%)	6mo	$115,000	$89	50
141 22nd St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-7%)	8mo	$80,000	$63	44
33 E 29th St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,169 (-14%)	1mo	$216,000	$185	38
916 24th St W	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,169 (-14%)	7mo	$158,500	$136	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,941
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $26,361
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32206

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
643 Linwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,325	$1.08	3d	1	0.04mi
4721 E Castlewood Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,250	$1.24	24d	1	0.16mi
511 Ivy St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	0.16mi
666 Basswood St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	0.19mi
451 Long Branch Blvd Unit 451 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	0.19mi
4526 Fairview St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1575	$980	$0.62	17d	1	0.22mi
331 W 40th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,375	$0.90	4d	1	0.24mi
326 Basswood St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,550	$1.18	24d	1	0.33mi
5514 Long St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	941	$1,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.42mi
421 Golfair Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1761	$1,381	$0.78	16d	1	0.42mi
5616 Calvin Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,195	$1.19	8d	1	0.47mi
141 W 43rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,231	$1.20	3d	1	0.48mi
28 W 33rd St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1395	$898	$0.64	8d	1	0.50mi
562 W 49th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,195	$1.10	24d	1	0.50mi
118 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,250	$0.94	24d	1	0.52mi
3728 Silver St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	916	$1,100	$1.20	24d	1	0.53mi
425 W 47th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1083	$1,193	$1.10	8d	1	0.55mi
528 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	944	$1,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.58mi
664 Escambia St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,500	$1.11	17d	1	0.61mi
646 Escambia St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	21d	1	0.62mi
5035 N Main St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	816	$1,459	$1.79	24d	69	0.62mi
319 W 49th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	977	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.62mi
26 W 27th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,300	$0.86	24d	1	0.64mi
347 W 23rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,112	$0.95	8d	1	0.65mi
3902 Stuart St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,050	$0.94	24d	1	0.70mi
204 W 23rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,225	$1.28	2d	1	0.71mi
1031 W 26th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,445	$1.15	24d	1	0.74mi
34 W 23rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	962	$1,400	$1.46	24d	1	0.76mi
522 W 21st St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,350	$1.29	24d	1	0.77mi
1149 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,302	$0.97	24d	1	0.80mi
1196 W 30th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$880	$1.01	17d	1	0.83mi
205 E 44th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	955	$1,075	$1.13	21d	1	0.83mi
3020 N Laura St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,300	$1.12	24d	1	0.83mi
1136 Maynard St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	919	$1,045	$1.14	24d	1	0.83mi
385 Duray Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	932	$1,250	$1.34	20d	1	0.84mi
519 W 19th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,075	$1.00	4d	1	0.84mi
519 W 19th St Unit a Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1071	$1,095	$1.02	21d	1	0.84mi
519 W 19th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,095	$1.02	21d	1	0.84mi
519 W 19th St Unit a Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1071	$1,075	$1.00	14d	1	0.84mi
356 Duray Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,425	$1.33	14d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   price $99,000
10. 2026-03-28
    listed $119,000 Active
11. 2025-03-13
    historical $1,250
12. 2025-03-04
    price $1,250
13. 2025-02-13
    price $1,299
14. 2025-01-23
    listed $1,350
15. 2025-01-14
    historical $1,250
16. 2024-12-20
    listed $1,250
17. 2023-12-29
    historical $1,200
18. 2023-12-05
    listed $1,200
19. 2023-11-05
    historical $1,200
20. 2023-10-26
    listed $1,200
21. 2015-09-04
    historical
22. 2015-08-31
    status Active
23. 2015-08-31
    price $41,500
24. 2015-08-27
    listed $42,000 Active
25. 2015-08-26
    historical
26. 2011-07-21
    soldstatus $30,000
27. 2011-07-13
    historical 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Excellent condition. Completely redone. Large Bonus Room and utility/ office with new tile floors. BONUS - Detached building in back w/2 sections was used for pottery shop & storage. Can be easily converted to 2 studio apartments. Could bring in $300 rent each. Own house w/FHA mortgage and have enough income to cover PITI + maintenance.

28. 2011-07-12
    soldstatus $30,000 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Excellent condition. Completely redone. Large Bonus Room and utility/ office with new tile floors. BONUS - Detached building in back w/2 sections was used for pottery shop & storage. Can be easily converted to 2 studio apartments. Could bring in $300 rent each. Own house w/FHA mortgage and have enough income to cover PITI + maintenance.

29. 2011-04-20
    listed $49,900 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Excellent condition. Completely redone. Large Bonus Room and utility/ office with new tile floors. BONUS - Detached building in back w/2 sections was used for pottery shop & storage. Can be easily converted to 2 studio apartments. Could bring in $300 rent each. Own house w/FHA mortgage and have enough income to cover PITI + maintenance.

30. 2011-04-12
    historical
31. 2010-01-24
    listed $52,900
32. 2007-12-12
    historical
33. 2007-06-12
    listed $109,000
34. 2006-07-11
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $3,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,105
• Household income: $39,242
• Rent vs Own: 53.7% rent · 46.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 22% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.55%
• Current HPI: 208.1852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.94%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+52.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $99,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $119,000 realMLS
• 2025-03-13 Rental Removed $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $1,299 BUILDIUM
• 2025-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,350 BUILDIUM
• 2025-01-14 Rental Removed $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2024-12-20 Listed for Rent $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2023-12-29 Rental Removed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2023-12-05 Listed for Rent $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2023-11-05 Rental Removed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2023-10-26 Listed for Rent $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2015-09-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2015-08-31 Relisted — realMLS
• 2015-08-31 Price Changed $41,500 realMLS
• 2015-08-27 Listed $42,000 realMLS
• 2015-08-26 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2011-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-13 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2011-07-12 Sold (MLS) $30,000 realMLS
• 2011-04-20 Listed $49,900 realMLS
• 2011-04-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2010-01-24 Listed $52,900 realMLS
• 2007-12-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-06-12 Listed $109,000 realMLS
• 2006-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,192 · +24.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.