2902 134th St · Lubbock, TX 79423

$280,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,154 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,635 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Jaxson is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a timeless brick exterior and elevated interior accents, the Jaxson is sure to turn heads. Step inside this 5 bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom home, and discover 2,135 square feet of comfortable modern living. The spacious Jaxson features a large open concept family, kitchen, and dining area, creating the perfect space for your family to enjoy every moment together, from meal prep to movie night. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each of the fi

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Stylish backsplash
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PLUSH CARPET FLOORS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lubbock-Cooper East El (math 45% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 759 students, 55% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper Middle (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 914 students, 37% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper H S (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #189 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,117 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,451 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-32,537
• Equity at exit: $41,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-17,686
• Equity at exit: $24,295

Cash invested: $78,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $280,990

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $398	-5% $318	+0% $239	+5% $159	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $145	+0% $239	+5% $333	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $310	base $239	+0.5pp $166	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,248
• Closing costs: $8,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2903 134th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	21d	1	0.07mi
2726 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	0.24mi
2713 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	21d	1	0.29mi
2925 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.5	2135	$2,495	$1.17	14d	1	0.35mi
3008 139th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	21d	1	0.42mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,700	$1.34	14d	1	0.52mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,800	$1.39	44d	1	0.52mi
3105 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	14d	1	0.54mi
3111 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	44d	1	0.55mi
3605 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2544	$3,800	$1.49	44d	1	0.93mi
13218 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.97mi
1907 136th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,050	$1.00	14d	1	0.97mi
13213 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	0.99mi
2217 150th Pl Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,150	$1.21	14d	1	1.19mi
1611 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$550	$0.32	21d	1	1.33mi
3618 119th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2167	$2,950	$1.36	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $280,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,142 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,490/yr (+$374/mo · 688.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,740
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$1,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,289
• − Management: −$2,289
• − Depreciation: −$8,174
• Taxable loss: −$1,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$464
• After-tax cash flow: $3,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can add value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and attractive to potential tenants and buyers.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can enhance curb appeal and safety, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and tenants.
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and tenants.
• Both Add landscaping features — Landscaping features can enhance curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers and tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can add value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and attractive to potential tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can enhance curb appeal and safety, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Add landscaping features — Landscaping features can enhance curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers and tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $280,990 LARMLS

Property tax history

+88.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $652 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.