4291 Stratton Rd · Fort Garland, CO 81133

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition 5.10 ac lot ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special! Opportunity to renovate this home and make it your own! Awesome potential with great upside. This is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,200 sq ft home. Being sold as is. Please contact as soon as possible as this will sell fast. Buyer responsible to do your own due diligence. Seller assumes no responsibility or risk for accidents or injuries that occur at the property or while inspecting the property

Key facts

• 5.1 acre lot
• Built 2019
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Unattached property; Fixer / under construction condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Built area approximately 1,200 (above grade finished area 1,200)
• Exterior features: Cistern water source; Large lot of approximately 5.1 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Pellet stove heating
• Interior features: Single-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.7% in Fort Garland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#364 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sierra Grande School District No. R-30 (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #148 of 176 in CO (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 591 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Costilla County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.84%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,027
• Equity at exit: $22,153

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $30,199
• Equity at exit: $22,605

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81133

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Investor Special! Opportunity to renovate this home and make it your own! Awesome potential with great upside. This is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,200 sq ft home. Being sold as is. Please contact as soon as possible as this will sell fast. Buyer responsible to do your own due diligence. Seller assumes no responsibility or risk for accidents or injuries that occur at the property or while inspecting the property

12. 2026-06-03
    listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Investor Special! Opportunity to renovate this home and make it your own! Awesome potential with great upside. This is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,200 sq ft home. Being sold as is. Please contact as soon as possible as this will sell fast. Buyer responsible to do your own due diligence. Seller assumes no responsibility or risk for accidents or injuries that occur at the property or while inspecting the property

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$282
• After-tax cash flow: $2,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 40/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations, including roof replacement, exterior finishing, and HVAC installation, to become move-in ready and significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Visible rust and wear
• Major exterior walls — Weathered and unfinished
• Major flooring — Uneven and unfinished
• Major interior walls/paint — Bare and unfinished
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible system

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — Aesthetic improvement and increased value
• Resale exterior wall finishing — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale flooring installation — Provides a finished look and improved functionality
• Resale interior wall finishing and paint — Completes the interior and enhances the home's appearance
• Both HVAC system installation — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's appearance and attracts buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Visible rust and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · Weathered and unfinished	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Uneven and unfinished	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Bare and unfinished	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible system	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — Aesthetic improvement and increased value ↑
• Resale exterior wall finishing — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale flooring installation — Provides a finished look and improved functionality ↑
• Resale interior wall finishing and paint — Completes the interior and enhances the home's appearance ↑
• Both HVAC system installation — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's appearance and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Grande School District No. R-30
• NCES district ID: 0804140
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,865
• Composite: 21.67/100
• National rank: #13595
• State rank: #148 of 176 in CO

Livability — Fort Garland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #24220

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,056

Population outlook (Costilla County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,560 people
• By 2030: 3,524 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 3,393 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 3,226 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 3,027 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 2,637 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 26% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Serbian 7% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Costilla

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 55.5% · R 40.9% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.2pp toward R · 2008: 48.9pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+29.0 2012: D+48.6 2008: D+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.17%
• Current HPI: 162.9232
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-52.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $95,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Listed $95,000 IRES
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $179,900 IRES
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $186,900 IRES
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $189,900 IRES
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $194,000 IRES
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $196,000 IRES
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $197,000 IRES
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $199,000 IRES
• 2026-02-13 Listed $200,000 IRES