1650 Skinners Turn Rd · Owings, MD 20736

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1920 1.00 ac lot $184/sqft · 40% below area Est $459k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house needs major renovations or tear down and build your dream house in Northern Calvert County. A usable one acre lot and a large footprint for the house , with two out buildings. This property is sold "as is" .

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Below-grade unfinished area reported (679); Above-grade finished area reported (1,493); Property condition described as below average

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Driveway parking; Garage(s) present
• Utilities: Private well water; No septic system; Electric hot water; Propane (leased) for heating
• Home design: Detached structure; Two levels
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built year reported by assessor
• Exterior features: Outbuilding(s) on the property; Property backs to trees; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heat; Propane (leased) fuel for heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area reported from assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.3% in Owings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#139 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $275k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,671 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $459,465
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -40.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-27,951
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,058
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20736

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,246

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $300,000 Active 191-char remark
15. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $160,000
16. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    This house needs major renovations or tear down and build your dream house in Northern Calvert County. A usable one acre lot and a large footprint for the house , with two out buildings. This property is sold "as is" .

17. 2024-05-17
    status Pending 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    This house needs major renovations or tear down and build your dream house in Northern Calvert County. A usable one acre lot and a large footprint for the house , with two out buildings. This property is sold "as is" .

18. 2024-05-16
    historical Active Under Contract 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    This house needs major renovations or tear down and build your dream house in Northern Calvert County. A usable one acre lot and a large footprint for the house , with two out buildings. This property is sold "as is" .

19. 2024-05-09
    listed $150,000 Active 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    This house needs major renovations or tear down and build your dream house in Northern Calvert County. A usable one acre lot and a large footprint for the house , with two out buildings. This property is sold "as is" .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,610 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,474
• − Management: −$2,474
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$1,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$340
• After-tax cash flow: $3,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — Owings

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,775

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.24%
• Current HPI: 273.5368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+83.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,610 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.