113 Rising Cedar Ln · Hockley, TX 77447

$269,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,600 sqft lot 2-car garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Dining room
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• UPSTAIRS GAMEROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $269,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2630 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,990
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -14.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Rising Cedar Ln	0.05mi	5/3.0	2,498 (+2%)	7mo	$310,990	$124	88
521 Wax Myrtle Way	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,482 (+2%)	6mo	$329,990	$133	84
217 Elm Spring Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$299,900	$133	77
565 Wax Myrtle Way	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,170 (-11%)	0mo	$289,990	$134	73
505 Wax Myrtle Way	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,012 (-18%)	4mo	$329,900	$164	64
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (-16%)	5mo	$314,990	$154	64
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (-16%)	6mo	$314,990	$154	62
117 Rising Cedar Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,003 (-18%)	1mo	$239,900	$120	61
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (-16%)	9mo	$303,990	$149	52
24455 Country Ln	0.81mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (-2%)	20mo	$325,000	$135	37
25236 Brookhollow Drive Dr	1.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,128 (-13%)	19mo	$210,000	$99	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,206
• Equity at exit: $46,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-101,155
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 35.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $304,990 ($136/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2630
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,819

Max offer price $293,342

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $-41	+0% $-150	+5% $-258	+10% $-367
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-253	+0% $-150	+5% $-46	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-69	base $-150	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Elm Spring Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	3.0	2439	$2,195	$0.90	7d	1	0.10mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionSlab foundation2,439 square feet living areaBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorAdditional bedrooms on first and second floors (total 5 bedrooms)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsDouble vanity in at least one bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboMain level primary bedroomQuartz countertopsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsRadiant attic barrier
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $269,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $269,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $269,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $269,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $269,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $269,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $269,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $269,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $269,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    pricedays on market $269,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $274,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $274,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $274,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $274,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $274,900 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $274,900 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $274,900 Active 42 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $274,900 Active 41 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $274,900 Active 40 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $274,900 Active 39 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $274,900 Active 38 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $274,900 Active 37 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $274,900 Active 36 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $274,900 Active 35 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $274,900 Active 34 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $274,900 Active 33 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $274,900 Active 32 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $274,900 Active 31 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $274,900 Active 30 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $274,900 Active 29 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $274,900 Active 28 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $274,900 Active 27 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $274,900 Active 26 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $274,900 Active 25 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 24 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 23 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $274,900 Active 22 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $274,900 Active 21 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $274,900 Active 20 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $274,900 Active 19 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $274,900 Active 18 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $274,900 Active 17 DOM

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

45. 2026-09-24
    price $274,900 Active 16 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $279,900 Active 16 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $279,900 Active 14 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$7,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-67/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home features an open-concept floor plan with a gourmet kitchen and a well-maintained exterior. It is in good condition with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Modern ceiling fans can improve air circulation and reduce energy costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionSlab foundation2,439 square feet living areaBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorAdditional bedrooms on first and second floors (total 5 bedrooms)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsDouble vanity in at least one bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboMain level primary bedroomQuartz countertopsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsRadiant attic barrier
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-25 Price Changed $274,900 Zillow
• 2026-09-24 Price Changed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2026-09-16 Price Changed $279,900 Zillow
• 2026-09-15 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-09-08 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2026-08-20 Price Changed $289,900 Zillow
• 2026-08-19 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2026-08-14 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-08-13 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-07-31 Price Changed $304,900 Zillow
• 2026-07-30 Price Changed $304,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $334,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $319,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $324,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Listed $334,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $334,900 Zillow