Blanton Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$244,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed with intention and built for connection, the one-story Blanton offers a bright, open layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the moment you enter, a welcoming foyer leads you into the heart of the home - a spacious kitchen with a center island that flows seamlessly into the dining area and family room. This expansive space is perfect for everything from quiet weeknights to lively holiday gatherings, offering a natural hub for togetherness and comfort. The owner's suite with grand entry is thoughtfully tucked at the rear of the home for added privacy, creating a peaceful retreat with a generous bath and ample closet space.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Dining area
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,982.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-641 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,498 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.33%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,982
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -25.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 N Greenville Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+3%)	0mo	$134,900	$82	79
113 Caddo St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-4%)	2mo	$255,000	$166	67
104 Milton St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-0%)	10mo	$247,500	$154	62
492 Milton St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-10%)	17mo	$275,000	$189	37
204 Swallowtail Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+9%)	22mo	$325,000	$186	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $138,911
• Equity at exit: $297,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $441,245
• Equity at exit: $641,082

Cash invested: $92,395 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 39.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,116 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,887

Max offer price $237,201

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-413	-5% $-527	+0% $-641	+5% $-755	+10% $-869
Rent	-10% $-805	-5% $-723	+0% $-641	+5% $-559	+10% $-477
Rate	-1.0pp $-475	-0.5pp $-557	base $-641	+0.5pp $-727	+1.0pp $-814

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,495
• Closing costs: $9,899
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	67d	1	0.22mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	38d	1	0.51mi
209 N Greenville St Josephine, TX	3.0	1.5	1196	$1,600	$1.34	85d	1	0.54mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	120d	1	0.74mi
629 Dunham Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,995	$0.96	0d	1	0.86mi
310 Pennington Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1977	$1,900	$0.96	25d	1	0.86mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	89d	1	0.91mi
315 Pennington Rd Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,399	$1.38	0d	1	0.91mi
629 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,995	$0.96	0d	1	0.91mi
621 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	0d	1	0.91mi
602 East St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,950	$1.06	20d	1	0.94mi
833 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,800	$1.23	4d	1	0.96mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	6d	1	1.02mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,995	$1.09	1d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	33d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	4d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	68d	1	1.03mi
617 Edge Hill Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	0d	1	1.11mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	40d	1	1.12mi
617 Edge Hill LN Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,399	$1.07	42d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	103d	1	1.13mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	50d	1	1.13mi
500 Shady Bank Way Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2229	$2,375	$1.07	28d	1	1.15mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	108d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	106d	1	1.19mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	85d	1	1.20mi
511 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,100	$1.45	6d	1	1.21mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	79d	1	1.24mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	139d	1	1.25mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,699	$1.18	0d	1	1.26mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	32d	1	1.28mi
503 Northern Red Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$1,925	$1.00	59d	1	1.29mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	139d	1	1.29mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	106d	1	1.29mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	97d	1	1.29mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,695	$1.07	36d	1	1.30mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	48d	1	1.30mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	95d	1	1.31mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	64d	1	1.31mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	103d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $244,990 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $244,990 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $244,990 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $244,990 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $244,990 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $244,990 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $244,990 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $244,990 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 76 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 75 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 74 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 73 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $244,990 Active 72 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 71 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 70 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 69 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 68 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    price $244,990 Active 67 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $264,990 Active 67 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $264,990 Active 66 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 65 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $264,990 Active 64 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 63 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $264,990 Active 62 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $264,990 Active 61 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 60 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $264,990 Active 59 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $264,990 Active 58 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $264,990 Active 57 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 56 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $264,990 Active 55 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $264,990 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $264,990 Active 52 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 51 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 50 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 47 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $264,990 Active 45 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 44 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $264,990 Active 42 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $264,990 Active 40 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $264,990 Active 39 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $264,990 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,484
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$9,599
• Taxable loss: −$13,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,304
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,050–$24,150 screening

The Blanton Plan is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more desirable. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B