Blanton Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$264,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed with intention and built for connection, the one-story Blanton offers a bright, open layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the moment you enter, a welcoming foyer leads you into the heart of the home - a spacious kitchen with a center island that flows seamlessly into the dining area and family room. This expansive space is perfect for everything from quiet weeknights to lively holiday gatherings, offering a natural hub for togetherness and comfort. The owner's suite with grand entry is thoughtfully tucked at the rear of the home for added privacy, creating a peaceful retreat with a generous bath and ample closet space. Choose to add access to the lau

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Dining area
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,616.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-601 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,079 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.76%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,616
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -20.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Milton St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-0%)	7mo	$247,500	$154	64
492 Milton St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-10%)	14mo	$275,000	$189	40
204 Swallowtail Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+9%)	18mo	$325,000	$186	33
104 Swallowtail	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+12%)	23mo	$378,500	$210	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $142,393
• Equity at exit: $298,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $449,465
• Equity at exit: $644,257

Cash invested: $92,853 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,739
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,974/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $244,723

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-371	-5% $-486	+0% $-601	+5% $-715	+10% $-830
Rent	-10% $-770	-5% $-685	+0% $-601	+5% $-516	+10% $-431
Rate	-1.0pp $-433	-0.5pp $-516	base $-601	+0.5pp $-686	+1.0pp $-774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,904
• Closing costs: $9,948
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	0.22mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	25d	1	0.74mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.91mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	11d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	8d	1	1.13mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	13d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	11d	1	1.19mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	44d	1	1.25mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	3d	1	1.28mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	44d	1	1.29mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	2d	1	1.29mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	11d	1	1.29mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	8d	1	1.31mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	0d	1	1.31mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	1.31mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	16d	1	1.32mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	0d	1	1.32mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	13d	1	1.32mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	11d	1	1.33mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	11d	1	1.34mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	2d	1	1.34mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	44d	1	1.34mi
1177 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	44d	1	1.36mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	1.36mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	7d	1	1.43mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	19d	1	1.44mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	44d	1	1.45mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	25d	1	1.48mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,990 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $264,990 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   listed $264,990 Active 1388-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,576
• − Property taxes: −$4,974
• − Insurance: −$1,658
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − Depreciation: −$9,647
• Taxable loss: −$13,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Blanton Plan is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more desirable.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more desirable. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B