328 S Port Royal Ln · Apollo Beach, FL 33572

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1989 $242/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. VALUE PRICED — Move-In Ready & Fully Furnished! Welcome to Caribbean Isles, a vibrant 55+ waterfront, gated community in the heart of Apollo Beach, where friendly neighbors, resort-style amenities, and endless activities create an inviting place to call home. This beautifully maintained and fully furnished 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers exceptional comfort, convenience, and value. Inside, the thoughtful split floor plan provides privacy by separating the primary ensuite from the guest bedrooms. Vaulted ceilings throughout enhance the home’s open, welcoming feel. The eat-in kitchen is ideal for casual dining, while the spacious f

Key facts

• Gated community
• Split floor plan
• Waterfront community

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• GATED COMMUNITY
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SCREENED PORCH
• KAYAK AND BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-684/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (5.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Zoned schools: Apollo Beach Elementary School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A-, #399 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 561 students, 40% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.32%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-30,038
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,207
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33572

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,004/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,170

Max offer price $159,824

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-9	+0% $-57	+5% $-105	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-140	+0% $-57	+5% $26	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-14	base $-57	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
349 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	583	$1,700	$2.92	5d	12	0.30mi
206 Lookout Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$2,025	$1.58	0d	1	0.66mi
6144 Paseo Al Mar Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,164	$2.00	0d	27	0.74mi
229 Lookout Dr Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,099	$1.63	6d	1	0.75mi
6350 Union Station Ct Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,364	$2.12	0d	43	0.85mi
6033 Flora Ter Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,895	$1.33	26d	1	0.89mi
527 Fox Run Trl Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$2,400	$2.73	0d	1	0.96mi
917 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$2,361	$2.11	1d	4	1.12mi
529 Red Mangrove Ln Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,200	$2.08	19d	1	1.16mi
960 Apollo Beach Blvd #102 Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1002	$1,900	$1.90	26d	1	1.30mi
1008 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,325	$2.07	6d	2	1.38mi
1025 Apollo Beach Blvd Unit D Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	26d	1	1.39mi
206 Shell Falls Dr Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1461	$2,200	$1.51	26d	1	1.39mi
1029 Apollo Beach Blvd #5 Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	26d	1	1.40mi
1028 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,812	$1.67	14d	1	1.46mi
6981 Tapestry Heights Ave Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,262	$2.15	0d	35	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   status Active
3. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-01
   listed $169,900 Active
5. 2025-09-30
   historical
6. 2025-03-25
   listed $179,900 Active
7. 2006-11-20
   listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,004 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,004
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 26,495
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,495
• Household income: $122,130
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -393.97%
• Current HPI: 300.9596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+47.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-20 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,004 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.