31 Woodlawn Dr · Lake Monticello, VA 22963

$262,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1997 0.34 ac lot $243/sqft · 12% below area Est $299k · 12% under $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful move-in ready home near Beach 4! This lovely home all on one level features 3 nice sized bedrooms and 2 full baths along with a nearly level back yard. The owners have done everything so all your clients have to do is move in! Brand new roof (August '25). April- 2026: New HVAC (with 10yr transferrable warranty), new flooring in FR/Kitchen/guest BRs, new kitchen counters/sink/faucet and new deck & interior paint. This home offers tons of natural light and open Kitchen, living room & dining area with vaulted ceilings & sliding doors to rear deck & back yard. Split bedroom design with primary bedroom and bath at front of home offering tons of privacy. This hom

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Brand new flooring
• Brand new hvac

Tags

• NEARLY LEVEL BACK YARD
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• BRAND NEW HVAC
• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN COUNTERS
• BRAND NEW PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is located in a gated community; Association-managed pool
• HOA & community: Association with annual fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, tennis and basketball courts, sports fields, boat dock and ramp, beach rights, golf course, meeting rooms, picnic area, and water access; Association fee covers management, common area maintenance, insurance, playground, reserve fund, road maintenance, snow removal, security, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Surveillance system; Gated community
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Public sewer; Underground electric
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built as above-grade finished area of 1,076
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); Primary bathroom on the first floor
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located downstairs; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,041 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,213
• List price: $262,000
• Delta: -12.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Jefferson Dr	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,140 (+6%)	4mo	$269,000	$236	64
10 Austin Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,162 (+8%)	22mo	$301,000	$259	63
3 Par Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+5%)	16mo	$269,000	$239	59
269 Jefferson Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+8%)	18mo	$345,000	$296	50
62 Turkeysag Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	14mo	$298,000	$261	47
6 Rockwood Ln	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-6%)	19mo	$235,000	$233	47
2 Laurel Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+11%)	18mo	$285,000	$238	40
5 Hawks Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+15%)	12mo	$325,000	$263	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-52,152
• Equity at exit: $39,065

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-57,921
• Equity at exit: $22,653

Cash invested: $73,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22963

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,682/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $235,127

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-78	+0% $-152	+5% $-226	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-232	+0% $-152	+5% $-72	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-85	base $-152	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,500
• Closing costs: $7,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
367 Jefferson Dr Palmyra, VA	2.0	1.5	1434	$1,750	$1.22	46d	1	0.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $262,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $262,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $262,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $262,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $262,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $262,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $262,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $262,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $262,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $262,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $262,000 717-char remark
18. 2026-05-02
    price $265,700 717-char remark
19. 2026-04-19
    listed $270,000 Active 717-char remark
20. 2013-01-31
    historical
21. 2012-07-19
    listed $119,000
22. 2010-03-22
    listed $109,900
23. 2003-04-02
    listed $119,900
24. 2002-10-17
    listed $87,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,682 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 27.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,676
• − Property taxes: −$1,682
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,622
• Taxable loss: −$6,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,542
• After-tax cash flow: $-284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Monticello, VA
• County: Fluvanna County · 16,896 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 16,896
• Household income: $104,259
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.94%
• Current HPI: 158.3322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+198.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $262,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $265,700 CAAR
• 2026-04-19 Listed $270,000 CAAR
• 2013-01-31 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2012-07-19 Listed $119,000 CAAR
• 2010-03-22 Listed $109,900 CAAR
• 2003-04-02 Listed $119,900 CAAR
• 2002-10-17 Listed $87,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,682 · +30.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.