633 Kemper Rd · Danville, VA 24541

$122,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1910 Est $122k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to earn rental income or to put down roots in your own home! This home is tenant occupied on month-to-month lease. 24-hour notice is required for showing. Property is sold as is, where is. Seller will not make improvements.

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.27 acre; Zoning: OTR

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story above-grade living area
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Schoolfield Elementary (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,108 statewide, top 91%, 500 students, 98% FRL); O. Trent Bonner Middle (math 33% / reading 53%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 678 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $122k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.75%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Kemper Rd	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,285 (-5%)	14mo	$68,000	$53	74
128 Kemper Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (-2%)	4mo	$190,000	$143	61
73 Fairfield Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,368 (+1%)	12mo	$115,000	$84	59
229 Kenmore Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+2%)	16mo	$100,000	$72	50
309 College Ave	0.51mi	2/1.5	1,465 (+8%)	14mo	$220,000	$150	48
89 Schoolfield Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,207 (-11%)	1mo	$90,000	$75	46
150 Westmore Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (-9%)	9mo	$126,500	$103	46
771 Arlington Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,221 (-10%)	9mo	$225,000	$184	38
45 Baltimore Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (-15%)	18mo	$95,000	$83	34
118 Flint St	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,189 (-12%)	14mo	$107,000	$90	34
185 Graymont Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-13%)	6mo	$195,000	$166	34
217 Floral Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+14%)	13mo	$132,900	$86	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,286
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $32,392
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24541

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $320/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $908

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
721 Chatham Ave Unit A Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	13d	1	0.10mi
732 Hughes St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	43d	1	0.11mi
107 Baltimore Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$914	$1.01	21d	1	0.47mi
181 Banner St Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,389	$1.18	43d	1	0.48mi
345 Flint St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,200	$1.35	43d	1	0.82mi
240 Lady Astor Pl Unit 241-10 Danville, VA	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,100	$0.88	43d	1	1.12mi
240 Lady Astor Pl Unit 241-3 Danville, VA	2.0	2.0	1246	$1,130	$0.91	43d	1	1.12mi
66 Carlson Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	966	$1,000	$1.04	43d	1	1.14mi
423 Chestnut St Unit 1 Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $122,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 242-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $122,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $320 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$681/yr (+$57/mo · 213.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$320
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $2,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$593
• After-tax cash flow: $3,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $51,427
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.28%
• Current HPI: 238.5992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+741.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $122,000 DRRAR
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — DRRAR
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $130,000 DRRAR
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $150,000 DRRAR
• 2025-06-05 Listed $130,000 DRRAR
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $320 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.