5281 Taos Dr · Abilene, TX 79605

$184,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1959 7,013 sqft lot $163/sqft · 35% above area Est $137k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner Agent--Vacant and easy to show...Will lease till closing for one time move--100% FINANCING AVAILABLE NEW WINDOWS, COMPLETELY RE SKINNED, EXTERIOR & INTERIOR PAINT & SO MUCH MORE. ALL HARD SURFACE FLOORING W NO CARPET. HOME WILL BE ABLE TO GO FHA OR VA AND WE ARE FINISHED W REMODEL.BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN AND READY FOR OCCUPANCY...LOCATED CLOSE TO DYESS & EASY ACCESS TO HWY.--CURRENTLY USED AS A SHORT TERM FURNISHED RENTAL $300 PER NIGHT--SO MAY HAVE TO WORK BETWEEN BOOKINGS

Key facts

• 7,013 sq ft lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 55 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+32.1%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.58%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,807
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 35.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5250 Taos Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (-0%)	2mo	$145,000	$129	90
5417 Encino Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,125 (-1%)	2mo	$171,900	$153	80
5273 Pueblo Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (+0%)	3mo	$170,000	$149	79
5410 Laguna Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (-3%)	3mo	$171,900	$156	78
5131 Durango Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+4%)	2mo	$165,000	$140	75
5333 Fairmont St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,117 (-2%)	2mo	$215,000	$192	57
817 S La Salle Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (-6%)	3mo	$130,000	$121	55
5317 Fairmont St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (+3%)	2mo	$215,000	$184	55
5348 Fairmont St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-4%)	2mo	$165,000	$152	54
733 S Crockett Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,020 (-10%)	4mo	$170,000	$167	53
5208 Aztec Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+15%)	0mo	$189,000	$145	52
1226 S Bowie Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,021 (-10%)	2mo	$110,000	$108	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $15,948
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $110,083
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79605

• Rents YoY: 32.1%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,370/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,469

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5348 Benbrook St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$2,100	$1.80	44d	1	0.59mi
5850 Hartford St Lot 123 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,495	$1.17	13d	1	0.91mi
5441 N 10th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,500	$1.97	13d	1	1.10mi
438 Benjamin Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,299	$1.89	21d	1	1.12mi
402 Arnold Blvd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,299	$1.89	21d	1	1.14mi
234 Clyde St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,995	$2.00	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $184,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $184,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-05-05
   price $184,900 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Owner Agent--Vacant and easy to show...Will lease till closing for one time move--100% FINANCING AVAILABLE NEW WINDOWS, COMPLETELY RE SKINNED, EXTERIOR & INTERIOR PAINT & SO MUCH MORE. ALL HARD SURFACE FLOORING W NO CARPET. HOME WILL BE ABLE TO GO FHA OR VA AND WE ARE FINISHED W REMODEL.BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN AND READY FOR OCCUPANCY...LOCATED CLOSE TO DYESS & EASY ACCESS TO HWY.--CURRENTLY USED AS A SHORT TERM FURNISHED RENTAL $300 PER NIGHT--SO MAY HAVE TO WORK BETWEEN BOOKINGS

4. 2026-04-05
   listed $189,900 Active 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Owner Agent--Vacant and easy to show...Will lease till closing for one time move--100% FINANCING AVAILABLE NEW WINDOWS, COMPLETELY RE SKINNED, EXTERIOR & INTERIOR PAINT & SO MUCH MORE. ALL HARD SURFACE FLOORING W NO CARPET. HOME WILL BE ABLE TO GO FHA OR VA AND WE ARE FINISHED W REMODEL.BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN AND READY FOR OCCUPANCY...LOCATED CLOSE TO DYESS & EASY ACCESS TO HWY.--CURRENTLY USED AS A SHORT TERM FURNISHED RENTAL $300 PER NIGHT--SO MAY HAVE TO WORK BETWEEN BOOKINGS

5. 2025-01-30
   listed $149,900 Active
6. 2024-12-31
   historical $1,400
7. 2024-12-30
   historical
8. 2024-10-17
   price $1,400
9. 2024-10-08
   price $1,500
10. 2024-04-03
    listed
11. 2024-04-02
    status Active
12. 2024-03-31
    historical
13. 2024-02-28
    price $149,900
14. 2024-02-02
    status Active
15. 2024-01-31
    historical
16. 2023-12-30
    price $153,900
17. 2023-12-12
    status Active
18. 2023-11-16
    historical
19. 2023-09-01
    price $149,900
20. 2023-07-02
    historical
21. 2023-06-05
    listed $89,900 Active
22. 2023-05-31
    historical
23. 2023-05-22
    price $100,000
24. 2023-02-22
    listed $110,000 Active
25. 2013-04-04
    soldstatus
26. 2003-04-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,014/yr (+$168/mo · 147.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,370
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $3,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$889
• After-tax cash flow: $5,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,467
• Household income: $62,929
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.75%
• Current HPI: 201.2341
• Rent YoY: ▲ 32.08%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+68.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $184,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Rental Removed $1,400 NTREIS
• 2024-12-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $1,400 NTREIS
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $1,500 NTREIS
• 2024-04-03 Listed for Rent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-02 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2024-02-02 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-01-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-12-30 Price Changed $153,900 NTREIS
• 2023-12-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-11-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2023-07-02 Rental Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-05 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2023-05-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-22 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2013-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,370 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.