37707 EL Sol Ave · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 194 Days on market

Built 2005 4,239 sqft lot Est $161k · 25% under $142/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Charming 3-Bedroom Home in Spanish Trails West 55+ Community – Now Reduced to $140,000! Don’t miss this fantastic opportunity! This 2004 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home has just been price reduced from $145,000 to $120,000, making it an exceptional value in the highly desirable Spanish Trails West 55+ community. Offering 1,296 sq. ft. of living space, this home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious family room, and a bright Florida room—providing a solid foundation for updates and personal customization. Major upgrades are already taken care of, including a 2019 roof and 2017 AC/heating system, giving buyers peace of m

Key facts

• Community pool
• Carport
• 2019 roof

Tags

• 2019 ROOF
• 2017 AC HEATING SYSTEM
• MULTIPLE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• CARPORT
• DOUBLE WIDE DRIVEWAY
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.85%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,704
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37501 Campo Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (0%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	84
7109 EL Matador St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (+3%)	9mo	$128,000	$96	78
37539 Rio Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	14mo	$175,000	$130	71
7131 EL Dewitt St	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	66
37526 Rio Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+12%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	66
37611 Amigo Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (-8%)	14mo	$140,000	$117	64
37838 Barcelona Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (-13%)	4mo	$136,000	$121	60
37652 New Horizons Blvd	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+8%)	3mo	$240,000	$172	58
6902 Orlo Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-15%)	2mo	$75,000	$68	50
37635 Gill Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (+9%)	3mo	$217,000	$154	49
37510 New Horizons Blvd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+15%)	2mo	$215,000	$144	48
37551 Gill Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+15%)	9mo	$235,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $17,350
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $47,733
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.24mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$2,315	$2.15	1d	34	0.63mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	24d	1	0.76mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	20d	1	0.85mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.87mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.89mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	24d	1	0.90mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.90mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	0.90mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.91mi
6249 Maisai Rd #6 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1561	$1,550	$0.99	2d	1	0.92mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	0.96mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	1d	142	0.99mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	14d	1	1.07mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	17d	1	1.07mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	5d	1	1.13mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	12d	1	1.16mi
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	24d	1	1.25mi
36887 Highland Meadows Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,250	$1.23	24d	1	1.39mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.43mi
36507 Camp Fire Ter Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,500	$1.63	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   status Active
3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-01
   status Active
5. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-25
   price $120,000
7. 2026-03-25
   status Active
8. 2026-03-18
   historical
9. 2026-03-07
   price $140,000
10. 2025-09-23
    listed $145,000 Active
11. 2009-09-24
    listed $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,569
• After-tax cash flow: $6,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-24 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $901 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.