1939 Misty Field Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$430,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,499 sqft lot Est $386k · 11% over $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has a total of 6 rooms
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Community amenities include beach rights, beach access, clubhouse, controlled access, basketball court, and dog park; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2023; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Cul-de-sac lot; Built-up roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first level (15 x 17); Bedroom on first level (12 x 11); Bedroom on first level (11 x 13); Bedroom on first level (12 x 12); Bedrooms possible: 4
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Double vanity; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $430k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• Recommended offer: $424k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,982/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $423,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,322
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,381 (+15%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	64
1743 Country Air Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (+10%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	59
1610 Country Air Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,388 (+15%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	57
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (-8%)	1mo	$352,990	$186	50
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-10%)	1mo	$354,990	$190	47
9422 Autumn Vale Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (-10%)	6mo	$355,000	$189	46
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,835 (-12%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	46
9439 Garden Gate Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (-10%)	4mo	$349,990	$186	46
9426 Spring Rain Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-10%)	5mo	$338,990	$182	45
9454 Spring Rain Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (-10%)	6mo	$349,990	$186	44
9446 Spring Rain Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,835 (-12%)	4mo	$348,990	$190	42
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,838 (-12%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-44,545
• Equity at exit: $90,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-51,911
• Equity at exit: $83,532

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$1,072 /mo · $12,867/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,046
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,690

Max offer price $430,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.01mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.27mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $430,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $430,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $430,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    historical $3,200
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $430,000 Active
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $3,200
17. 2025-08-29
    historical $3,200
18. 2025-08-27
    price $3,200
19. 2025-08-06
    listed $3,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,867 · $1,072/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,867 · $1,072/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$12,867
• − Insurance: −$2,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,783
• − Management: −$4,783
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$906
• After-tax cash flow: $3,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. Minor touch-ups and energy-efficient upgrades would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace ceiling fan — Improves energy efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fan — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Rental Removed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $430,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed for Rent $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Rental Removed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed for Rent $3,800 HARMLS

Property tax history

+118.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,867 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.