Ash Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$309,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,198 sqft · SingleFamily · 494 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The delightful Ash floor plan is a sprawling, two-story design that is full of character. The exterior of the home is just as beautiful as the interior since the home will have a two-tone paint selection, and an exclusive landscaping package including shrubs, a caliper oak tree, and a yard that is fully sodded. Entering from your front porch, you are greeted by an elegant foyer with vinyl plank flooring that your two-car garage lies beside. Across the foyer is your convenient powder bathroom featuring a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror that flows right into your open-concept family room. The massive family room is perfect for entertaining guests and is boasting with ample amount of space. The smell of fresh cookies baking can be experienced from the family room, since the kitchen is opened up facing the living area. The expansive kitchen area is completed with granite countertops, beautiful flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. You will love having the ability to install a kitchen island in the center of the kitchen, if you are needing more counter space. Speaking of more space, your oversized walk-in pantry will come in handy when you need to store all your food, spices, and dog treats. Integrating with your kitchen is your welcoming formal dining space with entry to your backyard in the corner of the room. Giving your backyard added value, you have the option of including a sizable covered patio! Adjacent to your. ..

Key facts

• Powder bathroom
• Fully sodded yard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• EXCLUSIVE LANDSCAPING PACKAGE
• FULLY SODDED YARD
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• POWDER BATHROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $394,429.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-642 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 494 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,818 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 494 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,429
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -21.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2825 Golden Isle Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,290 (+4%)	0mo	$399,990	$175	85
3102 Mariner Island Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-5%)	1mo	$323,990	$156	79
13026 Oleander Bay Ln	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,163 (-2%)	0mo	$314,990	$146	71
13204 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-13%)	0mo	$327,990	$171	70
13302 Rosemary Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-10%)	0mo	$334,990	$170	68
13310 Suntail Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,316 (+5%)	0mo	$309,900	$134	66
3605 Moraine Lake Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+1%)	0mo	$342,990	$155	64
3626 Moraine Lake Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+1%)	0mo	$342,990	$155	64
13113 Sapphire Lake Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,963 (-11%)	1mo	$319,445	$163	62
3206 Freeboard Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+3%)	0mo	$315,000	$139	62
2433 Mar Vista Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-8%)	1mo	$346,400	$171	61
2601 Village Azalea Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-12%)	1mo	$299,900	$155	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-102,196
• Equity at exit: $58,811

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-130,803
• Equity at exit: $34,103

Cash invested: $110,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 227 active · 82 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $346,556 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,068
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$493 /mo · $5,916/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,450

Max offer price $301,582

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-505	+0% $-642	+5% $-778	+10% $-914
Rent	-10% $-850	-5% $-746	+0% $-642	+5% $-537	+10% $-433
Rate	-1.0pp $-443	-0.5pp $-541	base $-642	+0.5pp $-744	+1.0pp $-848

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,607
• Closing costs: $11,833
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	17d	1	0.48mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	71d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	93d	1	0.95mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	42d	1	0.98mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.04mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1825	$2,650	$1.45	0d	5	1.05mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	12d	1	1.05mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,179	$1.18	0d	1	1.06mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	7d	1	1.10mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,430	$2.26	0d	22	1.11mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	27d	1	1.15mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	54d	1	1.20mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	30d	1	1.21mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	16d	1	1.26mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	10d	1	1.29mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	60d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 494 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $309,990 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $309,990 Active 491 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 490 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $309,990 Active 489 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $309,990 Active 486 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $309,990 Active 485 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $309,990 Active 484 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $309,990 Active 483 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 481 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 479 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 478 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 477 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 476 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 475 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 473 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 472 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 471 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 470 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 469 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 468 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 467 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 466 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $309,990 Active 465 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 464 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $309,990 Active 462 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 461 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 460 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 459 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 458 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 457 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 456 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 455 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 454 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 453 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 452 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 451 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 449 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 447 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 446 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 443 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 442 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 441 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 440 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 438 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 434 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 433 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,990 Active 432 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 429 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 428 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,094
• − Property taxes: −$5,916
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − Depreciation: −$11,474
• Taxable loss: −$14,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,567
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,990–$32,970 screening

This Ash Plan home in Texas City, TX is in good condition with a good exterior, interior, and appliances. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathroom and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $312,990 Zillow