126 Kanawka Rd #753 · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,053 sqft lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $175k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Special financing program, total move in cost may be as low as $2,000.00 for qualified buyers. Earnest money deposit only $500. Seller to pay up to $9,000.00 in buyer's closing costs to qualified buyers who opt out of special financing program. Home comes with range, dishwasher and microwave and venta hood, laminate flooring, mini blinds, granite countertops and 2 10 warranty. Stunning features include 9 ft. ceilings, vinyl plank flooring throughout, central heat and air, luxury walk in shower to name a few. Exterior features professional planned exterior colors, concrete driveway and walkway, front yard with sod and some plants and shrubbery, and a fenced back yard with gate. Buyer to select colors for appliances, laminate flooring, mini blinds, granite countertops, counters, fixtures and hardware. Floor plan and elevation and features list and color choices available in Transaction Desk. Pool, jogging walking trail and pavilion all part of Cherokee Shores POA. Great opportunity for first time homebuyers or those looking to downsize and enjoy a little country living! Close to both Hwy 175 and Mabank. Lot size is approximate. Street number subject to change as there is currently one street number for five lots. This is only one lot. Buyer or buyer's agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Granite countertops
• 5,053 sq ft lot

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FENCED BACK YARD
• JOGGING WALKING TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($205/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $163,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,325
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 2.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Kanawka Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+13%)	8mo	$165,000	$136	67
115 Geronimo	0.09mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,024 (-5%)	20mo	$160,000	$156	64
240 Geronimo Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	7mo	$188,000	$157	58
208 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+10%)	3mo	$74,415	$63	50
123 Little River Bnd	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,168 (+9%)	9mo	$175,000	$150	45
7972 Double Bridge Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,161 (+8%)	12mo	$77,000	$66	43
135 Lake Creek Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-7%)	22mo	$50,000	$50	39
120 W Quanah Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	960 (-11%)	24mo	$145,000	$151	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-32,833
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-45,608
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.10mi
102 Lynn Creek Dr Mabank, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$995	$0.71	44d	1	1.11mi
120 Trails End St Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,895	$1.61	44d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $179,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $179,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-02-26
   price $179,000 1304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1304 chars)

   Special financing program, total move in cost may be as low as $2,000.00 for qualified buyers. Earnest money deposit only $500. Seller to pay up to $9,000.00 in buyer's closing costs to qualified buyers who opt out of special financing program. Home comes with range, dishwasher and microwave and venta hood, laminate flooring, mini blinds, granite countertops and 2 10 warranty. Stunning features include 9 ft. ceilings, vinyl plank flooring throughout, central heat and air, luxury walk in shower to name a few. Exterior features professional planned exterior colors, concrete driveway and walkway, front yard with sod and some plants and shrubbery, and a fenced back yard with gate. Buyer to select colors for appliances, laminate flooring, mini blinds, granite countertops, counters, fixtures and hardware. Floor plan and elevation and features list and color choices available in Transaction Desk. Pool, jogging walking trail and pavilion all part of Cherokee Shores POA. Great opportunity for first time homebuyers or those looking to downsize and enjoy a little country living! Close to both Hwy 175 and Mabank. Lot size is approximate. Street number subject to change as there is currently one street number for five lots. This is only one lot. Buyer or buyer's agent to verify all information.

10. 2026-02-25
    listed $175,000 Active 1304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1304 chars)

    Special financing program, total move in cost may be as low as $2,000.00 for qualified buyers. Earnest money deposit only $500. Seller to pay up to $9,000.00 in buyer's closing costs to qualified buyers who opt out of special financing program. Home comes with range, dishwasher and microwave and venta hood, laminate flooring, mini blinds, granite countertops and 2 10 warranty. Stunning features include 9 ft. ceilings, vinyl plank flooring throughout, central heat and air, luxury walk in shower to name a few. Exterior features professional planned exterior colors, concrete driveway and walkway, front yard with sod and some plants and shrubbery, and a fenced back yard with gate. Buyer to select colors for appliances, laminate flooring, mini blinds, granite countertops, counters, fixtures and hardware. Floor plan and elevation and features list and color choices available in Transaction Desk. Pool, jogging walking trail and pavilion all part of Cherokee Shores POA. Great opportunity for first time homebuyers or those looking to downsize and enjoy a little country living! Close to both Hwy 175 and Mabank. Lot size is approximate. Street number subject to change as there is currently one street number for five lots. This is only one lot. Buyer or buyer's agent to verify all information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with recent updates and a move-in ready exterior. It has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace landscaping with more mature plants — Mature plants improve curb appeal and add value.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with more mature plants — Mature plants improve curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $175,000 NTREIS