4617 Kiefer Rd · Shively, KY 40216

$185,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,757 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 1959 9,100 sqft lot Est $235k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Extra Large Rooms -- Home Waranty offered -- Kitchen Appliances Remain -- Hardwood Floors in Living Room and First Floor Bedrooms

Key facts

• 9,100 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.4% in Shively — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#78 in KY, #2,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $185k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,438
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4709 Spen Lea Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,736 (-1%)	4mo	$245,000	$141	80
4707 Spen Lea Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (-2%)	5mo	$255,000	$147	75
2301 Quinn Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,825 (+4%)	5mo	$225,000	$123	73
2306 Edgin Ct	0.42mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,817 (+3%)	5mo	$170,000	$94	64
2570 Trubart Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-3%)	0mo	$225,000	$132	62
4316 Dohn Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,643 (-6%)	2mo	$240,000	$146	58
2606 Accasia Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-2%)	2mo	$240,000	$139	57
2207 Rockford Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-12%)	3mo	$149,000	$96	54
2107 Auburn Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,842 (+5%)	6mo	$220,000	$119	50
2709 Melvin Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (+9%)	3mo	$256,999	$134	45
1904 Lampter St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,525 (-13%)	2mo	$247,000	$162	41
2400 Garrs Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,019 (+15%)	8mo	$240,000	$119	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,524
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,884
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,780/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2029 Lynn Lea Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2248	$1,795	$0.80	3d	1	0.15mi
2304 Rockford Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,620	$1.16	24d	1	0.40mi
4403 Savage Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1325	$2,065	$1.56	24d	1	0.41mi
4105 North Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2229	$2,300	$1.03	3d	1	1.11mi
2008 Foxhurst Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-03
   price $185,000
4. 2026-02-12
   price $195,000
5. 2026-02-02
   listed $205,000 Active
6. 2001-06-21
   soldstatus $90,500 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Extra Large Rooms -- Home Waranty offered -- Kitchen Appliances Remain -- Hardwood Floors in Living Room and First Floor Bedrooms

7. 2001-04-02
   listed $94,950 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Extra Large Rooms -- Home Waranty offered -- Kitchen Appliances Remain -- Hardwood Floors in Living Room and First Floor Bedrooms

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,780
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$21
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shively

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shively, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+94.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-21 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $185,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $195,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $205,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2001-06-21 Sold (MLS) $90,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2001-04-02 Listed $94,950 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,780 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.