16802 Sugar Berry Ln · Montverde, FL 34756

$202,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1983 0.37 ac lot Est $242k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living in well maintained manufactured home with nicely landscaped front yard and beautiful private backyard on the water that can be enjoyed from the large screen enclosed lanai. House has newer membrane roof, AC and kitchen counter tops and cabinets. New carpet installed in 2018. Only 5 miles from Clermont shopping, dinning, recreational and religious services and one mile from down town Montverde. Zoned for well performing Lake County Schools is an extra bonus. Large shed on property provides for a great workplace and extra storage.

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Great scenery
• Spacious back yard

Tags

• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD
• LARGE SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• GREAT SCENERY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway / paved lot access
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, screened rear porch; Private mailbox; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $202k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 2.2% in Montverde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grassy Lake Elementary School (math 58% / reading 63%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 1,209 students, 29% FRL); Lake Minneola High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,176 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $202k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,970 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
3. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
4. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.84%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,696
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17502 Eve Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	6mo	$265,000	$166	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $68,844
• Equity at exit: $30,119

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $190,704
• Equity at exit: $17,465

Cash invested: $56,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34756

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,059
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$765
• Net cashflow: $1,595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,625

Max offer price $202,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,500
• Closing costs: $6,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16300 County Road 455 #401 Montverde, FL	3.0	3.0	1568	$3,750	$2.39	22d	1	0.86mi
17530 County Road 455 Montverde, FL	3.0	2.0	1724	$2,400	$1.39	20d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $202,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $202,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $202,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $202,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $202,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $202,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $202,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    status $202,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $202,000 Active
15. 2018-08-01
    soldstatus $112,500
16. 2018-07-31
    historical 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Affordable living in well maintained manufactured home with nicely landscaped front yard and beautiful private backyard on the water that can be enjoyed from the large screen enclosed lanai. House has newer membrane roof, AC and kitchen counter tops and cabinets. New carpet installed in 2018. Only 5 miles from Clermont shopping, dinning, recreational and religious services and one mile from down town Montverde. Zoned for well performing Lake County Schools is an extra bonus. Large shed on property provides for a great workplace and extra storage.

17. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus $112,000 Sold 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Affordable living in well maintained manufactured home with nicely landscaped front yard and beautiful private backyard on the water that can be enjoyed from the large screen enclosed lanai. House has newer membrane roof, AC and kitchen counter tops and cabinets. New carpet installed in 2018. Only 5 miles from Clermont shopping, dinning, recreational and religious services and one mile from down town Montverde. Zoned for well performing Lake County Schools is an extra bonus. Large shed on property provides for a great workplace and extra storage.

18. 2018-05-21
    status Pending 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Affordable living in well maintained manufactured home with nicely landscaped front yard and beautiful private backyard on the water that can be enjoyed from the large screen enclosed lanai. House has newer membrane roof, AC and kitchen counter tops and cabinets. New carpet installed in 2018. Only 5 miles from Clermont shopping, dinning, recreational and religious services and one mile from down town Montverde. Zoned for well performing Lake County Schools is an extra bonus. Large shed on property provides for a great workplace and extra storage.

19. 2018-05-12
    listed $112,500 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Affordable living in well maintained manufactured home with nicely landscaped front yard and beautiful private backyard on the water that can be enjoyed from the large screen enclosed lanai. House has newer membrane roof, AC and kitchen counter tops and cabinets. New carpet installed in 2018. Only 5 miles from Clermont shopping, dinning, recreational and religious services and one mile from down town Montverde. Zoned for well performing Lake County Schools is an extra bonus. Large shed on property provides for a great workplace and extra storage.

20. 2015-09-04
    soldstatus $40,000
21. 2001-08-06
    soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,315
• − Property taxes: −$1,680
• − Insurance: −$1,010
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,498
• − Management: −$3,498
• − Depreciation: −$5,876
• Taxable income: $16,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,043
• After-tax cash flow: $15,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Montverde

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #598
• US rank: #11453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 4,876
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,876
• Household income: $108,500
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Mexico, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.42%
• Current HPI: 410.9213
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+201.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $202,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2018-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-30 Sold (MLS) $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-12 Listed $112,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,680 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.