8416 Hinton Ave S · Cottage Grove, MN 55016

$335,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1960 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic home on large lot with private back yard! New paint, new luxury vinyl tile floor in kitchen, new roof in 2017, 3/4 bath in master bedroom, three bedrooms on main level, one finished room in lower level

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential one-level design; Main entry and primary living on one level
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Foundation area of approximately 1,196 (finished area information available)
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Full chain link fencing; Light tree coverage on lot; City street frontage; public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with window; Kitchen adjacent to dining area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Main level bedrooms include primary bedroom, two additional bedrooms (12x10 and 11x10); Lower level bedroom (24x10)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full main floor bathroom; Primary bathroom is a 3/4 bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Daylight/Lookout windows in basement; Egress window(s) in basement; Finished basement with storage space; Kitchen/dining room combination; Main floor primary bedroom; 3 bedrooms on one level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Cottage Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#132 in MN, #2,948 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Nuevas Fronteras Spanish Immersion (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #492 of 857 statewide, top 61%, 499 students, 16% FRL); Cottage Grove Middle School (math 33% / reading 51%, grade D-, #131 of 258 statewide, top 53%, 924 students, 33% FRL); Park High School (math 39% / reading 63%, grade D+, #127 of 471 statewide, top 27%, 1,938 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 52% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $223k; list at $335k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $241,138 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-69,794
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-75,385
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55016

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,376/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,757

Max offer price $286,826

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-178	+0% $-273	+5% $-368	+10% $-462
Rent	-10% $-463	-5% $-368	+0% $-273	+5% $-177	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-187	base $-273	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7550 80th St S Cottage Grove, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,700	$2.72	0d	11	0.56mi
7604 79th St S Cottage Grove, MN	2.0	2.0	1222	$1,995	$1.63	45d	1	0.60mi
7750 Hinton Ave S Cottage Grove, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$2,209	$2.21	0d	15	0.74mi
7689 Hardwood Ave S Cottage Grove, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,852	$2.74	0d	15	1.00mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $335,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $335,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-28
    historical $335,000
13. 2020-01-09
    soldstatus $222,797
14. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus $222,798 Sold 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Fantastic home on large lot with private back yard! New paint, new luxury vinyl tile floor in kitchen, new roof in 2017, 3/4 bath in master bedroom, three bedrooms on main level, one finished room in lower level

15. 2019-11-04
    status Pending 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Fantastic home on large lot with private back yard! New paint, new luxury vinyl tile floor in kitchen, new roof in 2017, 3/4 bath in master bedroom, three bedrooms on main level, one finished room in lower level

16. 2019-10-27
    historical Contingent - Inspection 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Fantastic home on large lot with private back yard! New paint, new luxury vinyl tile floor in kitchen, new roof in 2017, 3/4 bath in master bedroom, three bedrooms on main level, one finished room in lower level

17. 2019-10-21
    status Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Fantastic home on large lot with private back yard! New paint, new luxury vinyl tile floor in kitchen, new roof in 2017, 3/4 bath in master bedroom, three bedrooms on main level, one finished room in lower level

18. 2019-10-10
    historical Contingent - Inspection 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Fantastic home on large lot with private back yard! New paint, new luxury vinyl tile floor in kitchen, new roof in 2017, 3/4 bath in master bedroom, three bedrooms on main level, one finished room in lower level

19. 2019-10-03
    listed $219,900 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Fantastic home on large lot with private back yard! New paint, new luxury vinyl tile floor in kitchen, new roof in 2017, 3/4 bath in master bedroom, three bedrooms on main level, one finished room in lower level

20. 2009-05-05
    soldstatus $111,800 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    One level home with private master bath, new paint and carpet, vinyl windows, close to stores & schools. Home has a shed & fenced yard.

21. 2009-04-10
    historical 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    One level home with private master bath, new paint and carpet, vinyl windows, close to stores & schools. Home has a shed & fenced yard.

22. 2009-04-03
    listed $109,800 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    One level home with private master bath, new paint and carpet, vinyl windows, close to stores & schools. Home has a shed & fenced yard.

23. 2006-06-26
    soldstatus $195,000
24. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus $200,850
25. 2006-05-03
    historical
26. 2006-04-24
    listed $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,376 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,564 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$3,376
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$9,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,221
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #2948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottage Grove, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 40,695
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,695
• Household income: $120,715
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.55%
• Current HPI: 241.1084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+71.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $335,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $222,797 Public Records
• 2019-12-06 Sold (MLS) $222,798 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-21 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-10 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-03 Listed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-05 Sold (MLS) $111,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-03 Listed $109,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-19 Sold (MLS) $200,850 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-24 Listed $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,376 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.