16615 SE 63rd Ln · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32179

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · Land · 298 Days on market

Built 2025 0.31 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. BRAND NEW 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME WITH AN ATTACHED 1 SCREENED IN CARPORT. HOME FEATURES ARE COUNTRY STYLE FRONT PORCH, GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, INSIDE LAUNDRY, VAULTED CEILINGS, CEILING FANS, LARGE SLIDING GLASS DOOR LEADING TO PATIO, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, WALK IN MASTER CLOSET, SOFT CLOSE CABINET DOORS, MUCH MORE. A MUST SEE! THIS HOMES COMES WITH SEVERAL BUILDER'S UPGRADES. PROPERTY IS LOCATED IN THE WOODS AND LAKES SUBDIVISION IN THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST. PROPERTY OWNERS HAVE ACCESS TO PAVED AIRPORT RUNWAY WHEN YOU JOIN THE VOLUNTARY ASSOCIATION. YOU ALSO WILL ENJOY SEVERAL LAKES IN THE COMMUNITY THAT ARE GREAT FOR FISHING AND KA

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Ceiling fans
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• COUNTRY STYLE FRONT PORCH
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Marion Elementary School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,773 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 620 students, 79% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,746/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,625 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-29,928
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,036
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32179

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $520/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $154	+0% $91	+5% $29	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $22	+0% $91	+5% $160	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $147	base $91	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17200 SE 56th St Ocklawaha, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,500	$1.18	23d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-02
   status Active
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-12-02
   price $219,900
5. 2025-10-16
   price $234,900
6. 2025-09-16
   price $239,900
7. 2025-06-18
   listed $244,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $520 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,825 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,305/yr (+$109/mo · 251.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$520
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$2,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $1,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,318
• Household income: $46,512
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.21%
• Current HPI: 242.0408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $520 · +252.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.