15162 Majorca Bay Dr #2 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$514,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · Condo public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1990 $833/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rarely available unit in Sea Pines II--one of the largest units in fabulous Bay Forest! This 3-bedroom, 3-bath attached villa offers more than 2,000 square feet, plus a large private lanai and attached 2-car garage. Two primary suites--one on the main floor and one upstairs--each have room for a king-sized bed plus sitting area, and feature roomy bathrooms with walk-in showers and extended walk-in closets. SO MUCH ROOM! The guest room can stay a guest room, because there's a family room space that can serve as an office or den without taking away from the great room. The large kitchen has room for a dinette and can be converted to an open floor plan. The dining area in the great room can fi

Key facts

• Roomy bathrooms
• Large private lanai
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE PRIVATE LANAI
• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• ROOMY BATHROOMS
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• EXTENDED WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LARGE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is one of 15 units in the complex and 2 units in the building
• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees reported; Total one-time fees reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Quarterly condo fee; Condo fee reported as $2,500 (quarterly frequency); Annual recurring community fees and one-time fees apply; Condo-managed community; HOA maintenance covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, management, master association fee, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, reserve, sewer, street maintenance, and trash removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, internet access, library, tennis, pickleball, bocce, shuffleboard, and bike/jog paths

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water (assessment paid); Central sewer (assessment paid); Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Attached villa (end-unit); Duplex / multi-story home; Two stories; Rear exposure facing southeast; Located in the Bay Forest development (Sea Pines sub-condo)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 1990
• Exterior features: Privacy wall; Single-hung windows; Tile roof; Stucco exterior; Cul-de-sac lot; Landscaped area view; Deeded lot restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus a den; Two master suites (one on ground level, one upstairs); Split bedroom arrangement
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master baths: two masters, shower-only configuration
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable prewire and high-speed internet available; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Den (study); Screened lanai/porch; Turnkey furnished; Great room floor plan; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $514k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $514k).
• Recommended offer: $452k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,162/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($452k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $514k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $452,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.95%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-52,098
• Equity at exit: $76,639

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-50,545
• Equity at exit: $44,441

Cash invested: $143,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,695
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,511/yr
• Insurance: −$214
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$833
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,294
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,192

Max offer price $514,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,500
• Closing costs: $15,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	0.07mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	23d	1	0.16mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.16mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	21d	1	0.17mi
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.23mi
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$5,500	$3.13	23d	2	0.34mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.35mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	23d	1	0.42mi
14780 Glen Eden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$8,000	$3.66	23d	1	0.61mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.61mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	24d	1	1.00mi
28070 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2008	$12,000	$5.98	24d	1	1.01mi
360 Horse Creek Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1589	$5,250	$3.30	14d	4	1.04mi
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	16d	1	1.05mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	23d	3	1.06mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	14d	1	1.06mi
817 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$5,995	$3.61	14d	1	1.06mi
300 Horse Creek Dr #408 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$5,500	$3.84	23d	1	1.08mi
262 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1864	$10,500	$5.63	23d	2	1.08mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	21d	1	1.09mi
28211 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1918	$10,500	$5.47	24d	1	1.09mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	23d	1	1.11mi
784 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$3,500	$2.31	23d	1	1.16mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	16d	1	1.16mi
945 Carrick Bend Cir #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2360	$2,995	$1.27	14d	1	1.20mi
28450 Winthrop Cir Unit 1546014P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$7,804	$4.12	14d	1	1.22mi
430 Cove Tower Dr #1202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$7,800	$5.13	23d	1	1.24mi
430 Cove Tower Dr #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$6,500	$4.00	23d	1	1.24mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	24d	1	1.25mi
420 Cove Tower Dr #802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$4,750	$2.93	23d	1	1.25mi
28567 Clinton Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	2285	$13,000	$5.69	14d	1	1.27mi
28567 Clinton Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	2285	$13,000	$5.69	20d	1	1.27mi
425 Cove Tower Dr #902 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1854	$9,400	$5.07	23d	1	1.28mi
211 6th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$11,900	$5.95	23d	1	1.29mi
12945 Vanderbilt Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$5,250	$4.04	23d	2	1.30mi
28327 Hidden Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$8,950	$5.71	24d	1	1.30mi
28700 Trails Edge Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,175	$1.49	3d	2	1.32mi
651 Wiggins Lake Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$6,500	$4.37	23d	1	1.32mi
1680 Sanctuary Pointe Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1888	$5,900	$3.12	23d	1	1.33mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1864	$25,000	$13.41	14d	2	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $833 · $9,996/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $514,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $514,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $514,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $514,000 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $514,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $514,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $514,000 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $514,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $514,000 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $514,000 Active 204 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,511 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,266 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$755/yr (+$63/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 87% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,792
• − Property taxes: −$3,511
• − Insurance: −$3,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,916
• − Management: −$5,916
• − HOA: −$9,996
• − Depreciation: −$14,953
• Taxable income: $1,497
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $8,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+159.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $514,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $545,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $579,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1999-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,511 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.