13026 Hopkinsville Rd · Nortonville, KY 42442

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick split-foyer home sitting on 2.75 acres of peaceful country setting! Offering plenty of room inside and out, this property delivers comfort, space, and functionality for any lifestyle. Upstairs features bright, open living spaces with generously sized rooms throughout, while the lower level adds even more flexible space for entertaining, an extra living area, or additional bedrooms. The well-designed layout makes it easy to spread out and enjoy. Outside, you’ll find a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. The 2-car attached garage adds convenience, storage, and protection from the weather. With 2.75 acres, there’s plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, hobbies, or simply enjoying the privacy.

Key facts

• Open living spaces
• Flexible space
• 2.75 acres

Tags

• BRICK SPLIT-FOYER
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• 2.75 ACRES
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• OPEN LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#431 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 382 students, 70% FRL); South Hopkins Middle School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 365 students, 59% FRL); Hopkins County Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 774 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $195k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,814 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,473
• Equity at exit: $56,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,463
• Equity at exit: $68,080

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42442

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,167/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,520

Max offer price $154,211

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-176	+0% $-231	+5% $-286	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-328	-5% $-279	+0% $-231	+5% $-182	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-181	base $-231	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   status Pending 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick split-foyer home sitting on 2.75 acres of peaceful country setting! Offering plenty of room inside and out, this property delivers comfort, space, and functionality for any lifestyle. Upstairs features bright, open living spaces with generously sized rooms throughout, while the lower level adds even more flexible space for entertaining, an extra living area, or additional bedrooms. The well-designed layout makes it easy to spread out and enjoy. Outside, you’ll find a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. The 2-car attached garage adds convenience, storage, and protection from the weather. With 2.75 acres, there’s plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, hobbies, or simply enjoying the privacy.

3. 2025-11-20
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2025-11-14
   listed $195,000 Active 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick split-foyer home sitting on 2.75 acres of peaceful country setting! Offering plenty of room inside and out, this property delivers comfort, space, and functionality for any lifestyle. Upstairs features bright, open living spaces with generously sized rooms throughout, while the lower level adds even more flexible space for entertaining, an extra living area, or additional bedrooms. The well-designed layout makes it easy to spread out and enjoy. Outside, you’ll find a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. The 2-car attached garage adds convenience, storage, and protection from the weather. With 2.75 acres, there’s plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, hobbies, or simply enjoying the privacy.

5. 2019-05-06
   soldstatus $110,000
6. 2019-04-29
   soldstatus $110,000 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Wonderful 4 bedroom 2 bath home / gorgeous fireplace in main living room / large 2 acre lot / concrete parking with 2 car attached garage / additional drive to rear of home to a carport / patio behind home / beautiful cabinetry / call Robin Duke to schedule your personal tour today 270-421-2755

7. 2000-06-01
   soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,167 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,677 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$42/mo · 43.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,167
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$6,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Nortonville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #21163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,006

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Current HPI: 281.4048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+204.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-03-22 Pending — HABOR
• 2025-11-20 Listed $195,000 MHCBOR
• 2025-11-14 Listed $195,000 HABOR
• 2019-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MHCBOR
• 2000-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,167 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.